Page 15 - Poland Outlook 2020

12-month outlook for the latter rebounded from November's record low,” the index’s compiler said.
Segment breakdown of November production (latest available data) indicates continued growth of export-oriented industries. Among segments with the fastest production growth were manufacturers of computers, electronic and optical products (+7.1% y/y), electrical devices (+4.9% y/y) and furniture (+2.8% y/y). This confirms that Polish exporters are able to maintain sales on export markets, despite downturn in Poland’s main trading partners, Germany in particular.
On the negative side, production in the manufacturing segment - as differentiated from utilities - expanded just 0.2% y/y overall in November. Poor results of production of investment goods, which expanded just 0.3% y/y in the eleventh month - point to low investment activity of companies.
• Energy and power
Transformation of the Polish energy sector could be the story of the decade in the region. That is because Poland’s starting point is so different from any other country. Poland’s energy mix remains most dependent on burning coal in Europe, with close to 80% of electricity derived from the fossil fuel. That puts Poland at odds with the European Commission, which wants to move towards climate neutrality, ie. reducing climate-harming CO2 emissions and boosting their absorption so as to achieve net-zero emissions output in 2050. Poland has so far opposed that goal but is expected to sign up to it in June, especially if the incumbent Andrzej Duda wins reelection as president. Until the election, Duda and PiS party that supports him, will play the card of energy independence and defending the Polish mining sector from EU’s climate policy ambitions.
But the transformation is inevitable. Polish state-run utilities PGE, Enea, Energa, and Tauron, are facing increased problems as changes in the EU legislation are pushing up the price of permits to emit CO2. For coal-reliant electricity generation that means extra costs running into hundreds of millions of zloty.
So a multi-billion shift towards cleaner energy is under way, albeit slowly.
15​ Poland Outlook 2020​ ​ ​www.intellinews.com