Page 16 - Poland Outlook 2020

Utilities have plans to develop offshore wind parks in the Baltic Sea and build more solar power plants while the PiS government pledged construction of no fewer than six nuclear reactors. If all goes to plan - which is far from given in the capital-intensive and time-consuming investment process in the energy sector - the end of the 20s should see a pronounced shift from coal towards renewables and, in the early 30s, to nuclear. But steps necessary for the realisation of what amounts to no less than a revolution will all have to begin in 2020.
• ​Construction
Chances are that the incoming downturn in Poland’s real estate and construction sector - an effect of the overall economic slowdown - will be less severe than the previous ones in 2013 and 2016.
Activity in construction decreased 4.7% y/y in November (latest available data), against a drop of 4% y/y in October. The reduction was the biggest in specialist work, such as preparation of land for construction, electrical and water installations, etc. and in civil engineering. On the other hand, construction of buildings was not affected too much, growing XX% y/y.
While weakness in civil engineering does point to an incoming downturn, it could be less pronounced than expected because construction buildings seems to be holding steady. In previous cycles, this particular segment would weaken alongside others, which does not seem to be the case this time.
Secondly, some sentiment indices in the construction industry have recently started to improve, employment and future demand in particular.
16​ Poland Outlook 2020​ ​ ​www.intellinews.com