Page 5 - Poland Outlook 2020

neutrality in particular.
2.0​ ​Political outlook
The single most important political event in Poland - possibly with far-reaching consequences - will be the presidential election due in May.
The incumbent Andrzej Duda is nearing the end of his first five-year term as a highly divisive figure. A Law and Justice (PiS) candidate in 2015, the little-known Duda managed to beat then incumbent Bronisław Komorowski, paving PiS the road to victory in the general election held later that year. In line with expectations, Duda proved extremely loyal to PiS, being instrumental in pushing through most reforms, the judiciary one - really a political power grab in the Polish courts - in particular. For that, the opposition has been constantly calling Duda be tried in the State Tribunal, once and if an opportunity to do so arises.
Presidential polls are not much reliable at the moment with the last of the major political forces, the Left, still to announce its candidate, which is due on January 19.
Still, Duda is leading by a considerable margin. Two December polls gave him around 45%-46% with the liberal rival Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska trailing at 22%-26%. Other candidates are in the single digits. The Catholic TV personality and journalist Szymon Hołownia is at 8%-10%. The leader of the Polish People’s Party (PSL) Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz enjoys popularity of 7%-9%. The possible far-right candidate Krzysztof Bosak - the far-right Konfederacja party is currently running primaries across the country - is at around 5%. The Left might field socialist Adrian Zandberg who could count on 7%-8% or a yet unknown woman candidate.
If no candidate gets 50%+1 vote, there will be a run-off, currently the most likely scenario, polls therefore suggest. The opposition’s problem is that it seems too fragmented even to unite against Duda and back the single candidate that could emerge after the inconclusive first vote.
Duda’s reelection, then, currently seems the most likely scenario. If an opposition candidate wins, however, it will have a far-reaching consequences. Most importantly, an opposition president will be very unlikely to help PiS carry out literally any changes after pronouncing it the very threat to democracy and to Poland’s membership in the EU, which has dominated the opposition’s rhetoric since 2015.
That in itself will likely drive the current effectiveness of the PiS government to a standstill. The ruling party does not have a majority in the parliament to overturn a presidential veto (in fact, PiS only has a majority of four), which requires a majority of 60% with at least half of MPs present, and may not even make an effort to push through any divisive legislation. Given the extreme levels of partisanship in Polish politics, the definition of “divisive” is also likely to be very broad.
Frustrated by this sudden ineffectiveness, the PiS’ government might make a
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