Page 7 - Poland Outlook 2020
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3.0 Macro Economy
Poland key economic figures and forecasts
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020f 2021f
Nominal GDP (EUR bn) 430.1 424.3 464.5 496 525.1 554.1 582.8
Real GDP (% yoy) 3.8 3.1 4.9 5.2 4.3 3.3 3.2
Industrial output (% yoy) 4.8 2.9 6.5 6 4.2 3.5 4
Unemployment rate (avg, %) 10.5 8.9 7.3 6.1 5.5 5.7 6.3
Nominal industrial wages (% yoy) 3.5 4.1 5.6 7.1 6.6 6.5 5.8
Producer prices (avg, % yoy) -2.2 -0.1 2.9 2.2 1.5 2 n.a.
Consumer prices (avg, % yoy) -0.9 -0.6 2 1.7 2.3 3 2.1
Consumer prices (eop, % yoy) -0.5 0.8 2.1 1.1 2.7 2.5 2
General budget balance (% of GDP) -2.6 -2.2 -1.4 -0.4 -0.6 -0.7 -1.2
Public debt (% of GDP) 51.1 54.1 50.6 48.9 47 44.9 43
Current account balance (% of GDP) -0.6 -0.3 0.1 -0.7 0 -0.4 -0.1
Official FX reserves (EUR bn) 87.4 108.4 94.3 102.3 109 112 n.a.
Gross foreign debt (% of GDP) 70.2 74.5 72.6 64.5 59.8 56.9 54.9
EUR/PLN (avg) 4.18 4.36 4.26 4.26 4.3 4.32 4.33
USD/PLN (avg) 3.77 3.95 3.78 3.61 3.81 3.82 3.69 Source: Thomson Reuters, RBI/Raiffeisen RESEARCH
The slowdown is here for the Polish economy but even at the expected 3.3%, growth in 2020 will still be one of the fastest in the region, below only Kosovo at 3.8% and on a par with Ukraine. The Law and Justice (PiS) government is more optimistic, having assumed in the 2020 budget bill - the first one in 30 years without deficit - that GDP will expand 3.7% in 2020. The 3%-3.7% growth range this year is what most banks forecast.
As has been the case since 2016, household consumption will fuel expansion in 2020 on the back of the universal 500+ child payment (the effect of which is
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