Page 6 - Poland Outlook 2020

choice of calling an early election in order to try and secure a bigger majority in the parliament. That, however, appears unlikely with the party’s popularity having remained stagnant at 40%-45% since the October election that gave it the second term in power. That said, there is no clearly discernible postivie or negative trends in popularity for other parties at the moment.
The average standings of Polish political parties, based on 11 polls carried out in December puts PiS top at 41.8%. The liberal group Civic Coalition (KO) - made of the biggest opposition party Civic Platform (PO) and satellites like Modern or Greens - is at 25.7%. They are followed by the Left at 13.2%, the Polish People’s Party (PSL) at 7.6% and the far-right Konfederacja at 7.5%.
If there is not an early election, PiS is going to face another awkward scenario, of lasting until the end of the term with limited governance possibilities while discrediting president for stalling reforms. That is a risky scenario as voters might swing from PiS once they realise the ruling party is no longer as effective as it used to be.
Which side of the political scene will take advantage of that swing is anyone’s guess. Opposition parties will definitely use the presidential contest to further their agenda on a nationwide scale with the 2023 general election in mind. Depending on the outcome, the presidential vote may, therefore, give at least some new dynamics to party politics in 2020 and beyond.
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