Page 11 - MEOG Week 10 2022

MEOG POLICY MEOG

Middle Eastern stances vary as

Russia-Ukraine war escalates

MIDDLE EAST THE recent Russian invasion of Ukraine is geopolitical calculations; the same calculations
having a disruptive impact on the Middle East. that prompted Russia to prevent the Syrian
Aside from its geopolitical consequences, the regime from falling in the Western-backed Arab
war will have an economic impact on the region Spring uprising.
in various ways.
Russia and Ukraine are two of the world’s Turkey
top grain exporters. The escalation of the war Turkey voted to condemn the Russian inva-
will certainly affect wheat production and sion of Ukraine in the UN General Assembly.
exports. The Russian invasion is expected to The geographically sensitive position of Turkey
drive up global wheat prices, which will impose between East and West, its long ties with both
yet more financial burdens on an already cash- camps and especially with its economic cooper-
strapped Egypt, which is the world’s biggest ation with Moscow, have pushed Ankara to care-
wheat importer. This will potentially have reper- fully balance its different interests and to avoid
cussions on low-income households and social angering the Russians with any sort of escalation.
stability. Russia is Turkey’s main gas supplier, cov-
Some countries, like Qatar, could on the other ering 33% of its total imports. The gas cut will
hand benefit from cuts in Russian gas supplies represent a problem for Ankara, which will
to Europe, increasing gas exports. However, have to search for more expensive options. But
the Qataris said they currently do not have the at the same time, the country is aware that it
capacity to increase their gas production. must present its stance within the consensus of
The consequences of the war are very com- NATO, in which Turkey is a member. In order to
plicated and have pushed most Middle Eastern avoid playing an influential part in the US and
states to refrain from clarifying their position EU sanctions against Russia, it chose to close the
until very recently, when the UN General Bosporus and the Dardanelles Straits to warships
Assembly voted on whether to condemn the and said that such a move was not intended to
Russian invasion of Ukraine on March 3. The be against Russia but rather designed to preserve
hesitant stance, especially before the UN General the security of the Black Sea region. It is also true
Assembly resolution, stems not from bets placed that Ankara is in desperate need of Western eco-
on either camp, but stems rather from striking a nomic assistance to help the recovery of its ailing
balance between, on the one hand, an expected economy.
Russian military victory (despite fierce Ukrain-
ian resistance) and, on the other, an expected UAE
Western economic and financial victory (despite The UAE voted to condemn the Russian inva-
Russia’s capabilities and manoeuvres). sion of Ukraine in the UN General Assembly.
Regardless of the (non-binding) UN resolu- The country has been pursuing a non-aligned
tion, it is clear that the war has brought strategic posture in the crisis, a position explained by the
shifts for many countries. GCC countries, for country’s attempt to preserve economic bonds
example, have been redefining US engagement and diversified alliances with partners including
in the area. Israel, like Egypt, has favoured not the US, Russia, China, and India.
fully condemning the attack, keeping the door The vote for the non-binding UN General
partially open for future cooperation with Rus- Assembly resolution will not affect the UAE
sia on energy, food, military equipment trade strategy of keeping its cooperation with all
and other projects. On the other hand, Syria parties, but it is not clear whether this strategy
is standing firmly with Moscow, basically on can remain intact when economic sanctions on

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