Page 53 - Russia OUTLOOK 2023
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• FX & capital flight
The dollar/ruble exchange rate will weaken from RUB68.4 to the dollar in
2022 to RUB75 in 2025, according to the CBR.
Analysts expect a stronger ruble over the entire forecast horizon
compared to the CBR’s September macroeconomic survey, with a gradual
weakening trend.
Analysts forecast for 2022 – RUB68.4 per dollar, for 2023 – RUB71.4 per
dollar, for 2024 – RUB74.7 per dollar.
The strongest revision is forecast for 2025 – RUB75.0 per dollar (in September
– RUB79.7 per dollar).
Trading volumes in the ruble dropped significantly following the start of the war
and are unlikely to recover.
The surprising strength of the Russian currency has led some to
conclude that the overall macro situation is strong but this is not correct,
says IIF.
Volumes transacted have dropped sharply, implying that the sanctions are
53 Russia OUTLOOK 2022 www.intellinews.com
