Page 50 - Russia OUTLOOK 2023

Both Sberbank CIB and RenCap expect inflation to accelerate further in
December (to 12%-12.5% y/y) due to the indexation of housing tariffs and
stronger demand amid increased budget expenditures that seasonally peak at
the end of the year.

The board of the CBR has resolved to maintain the key interest rate flat at
7.5% at the policy meeting of October 28, making no key rate cut for the first
time in six months, as anticipated by the market.

Analysts expect inflation to slow to 6% in 2023, return to near 4%
in 2024 and keep to the target of the CBR thereafter. Meanwhile, the
forecast for 2024 is slightly raised (by 0.2 pp to 4.2%), remaining in the
July-September range.

• CBR monetary rates

Russia’s prime rate ended 2022 at 7.5% and will be cut to 7.1% in 2023,
falling to 6% by 2025, as Inflation declines from 12.5% in 2022 to 4% over
the forecast period, according to the CBR.

50 Russia OUTLOOK 2022 www.intellinews.com