Page 85 - Russia OUTLOOK 2023

China may soon surpass the entire European Union in terms of gas
consumption if the decline in demand in Europe continues, deputy
department head at Gazprom Kirill Polous said on December 15. "China's gas
demand has grown at an astonishing rate of more than 13% per year since the
turn of the century. During this time, China's gas consumption increased by
over 350 bcm. If European gas demand continues to diminish, it is extremely
likely that, in the near future, China's yearly gas consumption will exceed that
of the EU," he said, adding that by the end of 2022, China's gas consumption
is projected to be 375 bcm. By 2040, gas consumption in China may increase
to 700 bcm, China's import potential will more than double up to 330 bcm, he
added.

Russia’s gas producers other than Gazprom increased production. Gas
production by Rosneft (including shares in joint ventures) in
January-November rose by 15.2% to 61.8 bcm. Novatek’s output grew by
2.1% to 76.3 bcm, Gazprom Neft’s by 17.1% to 46.4 bcm. Tatneft's production
increased by 8.5% to 835.8 mcm.

Of the major independent gas producers, production was reduced by Lukoil
(by 0.8% to 18.7 bcm), Surgutneftegaz (by 8.9% to 7.6 bcm) and the
Independent Oil and Gas Company (by 3.1% to 6.2 bcm). Gas production
under production-sharing agreements (Sakhalin-1, Sakhalin-2 and
Kharyaginskoye PSA projects) decreased by 13% to 22.7 bcm, the
interlocutors of Vedomosti reported.

According to Vedomosti's calculations, in general, the production of all
independent producers for 11 months in aggregate reached 236 bcm, an
increase of 4.6% y/y.

In 2023, if the current geopolitical situation continues, according to
Alfa-Bank, the decline in exports will persist – it may fall by more than
28%, or by about 28 bcm. This will mean that the decline in gas production in
Russia next year will be at least 4%. “However, in the event of a further
slowdown in the Russian economy and a possible decrease in the production
of gas chemical products, this estimate may turn out to be too optimistic, and
the real decline in production in 2023 will be up to 10%,” the expert concludes.

Oil:

In 2022, Russia increased oil production by 2%, to 535mn tonnes, and in
the top four producers, only the sanctioned Rosneft reduced production, writes
Kommersant. Exports to non-CIS countries via pipelines and the sea as a
whole expanded by almost 19% during the year, to 207mn tonnes.

But it seems that this is the last year of growth. Under the conditions of the

85 Russia OUTLOOK 2022 www.intellinews.com