Page 59 - RusRPTSept19

The Ministry of Finance has collected RUB1.9tn of revenues, which means total revenues are +2.7% y/y (up RUB50bn). The mostly unchanged total revenues were due to opposite trends in oil and non-oil revenue flows: Oil and gas revenues were down -11.8% y/y to RUB0.7tn in July on the back of the lower Urals oil price, which averaged $63.4/bbl vs. $72.8/bbl in July 2018, down -13.0% y/y.
Non-oil revenues increased +12.4% y/y to RUB1.3tn. This is predominantly due to the VAT revenue collection, which was up 18.4% y/y to RUB.6tn in July Federal budget balance stood at +RUB2.0tn for 7mo19 and RUB0.3tn for July. The surprise to the Bloomberg compiled consensus, which estimated the budget balance at RUB1.6tn, mostly comes from the large collection of ‘other revenues’, in our view. These include dividends collected by the government and of RUB0.3tn in July, which is significantly higher than typical for this category.
The federal government spent an estimated RUB1.6tn in July, out of the RUB18.3tn of total spending planned this year. Total spending increased RUB0.2tn y/y, or +14.6% y/y.
Increase in the federal budget outlays was mostly a catch up: spending has trailed the typical seasonal pattern for the past two months. This has not been related to the revision of the federal budget's spending limit, which saw only a small mark up: RUB18.3tn budgeted currently vs. the RUB18.0tn originally.
The saw-tooth pattern of federal budget spending can be traced back to the security and defence categories, which saw unusual volatility (even by their own standards) in execution in March and April. Other larger categories, such as the national economy, have closely followed the typical seasonal pattern this year.
59 RUSSIA Country Report September 2019 www.intellinews.com