Page 14 - EurOil Week 36 2022

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gas supply from the Nord-Stream pipeline half the natural gas it requires from Russia, 31, 2020. Azerbaijan and the EU reached
until sanctions are lifted, we expect further while also taking supplies from Iran and an agreement in July 2022 to double gas
upward price pressure on natural gas to Azerbaijan, and importing liquefied natural supplies to the EU to 20 bcm by 2027.
occur over the winter. gas (LNG) from suppliers including the US.
“With the drilling rig arriving September Separately, on September 7, Erdogan
11th, the first new gas production is lashed out at Western nations for provoking Czechia pushes for more
expected around the end of October, 2022 Russia, while hailing Ankara’s policy of
which will capture the high gas prices.” “balance” towards the two sides engaged in connections to LNG terminals
Trillion is an oil and gas producing Russia’s war in Ukraine.
company with assets in Turkey and While declining to sanction Moscow, Czech premier Petr Fiala (ODS party) and
Bulgaria. Turkey at the same time has supplied his Polish counterpart Mateusz Morawiecki
The company is the 49%-owner of the Ukraine with weapons and combat drones. (PiS) have announced the resumption of
SASB natural gas field.. Erdogan told reporters during a visit work on the Stork II pipeline bringing
to Belgrade that he understood Putin’s gas from the Polish LNG terminal at
decision to cut off Nord Stream pipeline gas Swinoujscie to Libhost in Czechia’s northern
Turkey set to pay in rubles for supplies to Germany. Moravian region.
“I can say very clearly that I do not
Premiers of both countries made the
quarter of gas piped from Russia find the attitude of the West, no need to announcement during the economic forum
mention names, to be correct, because it is
in the Polish spa city of Karpacz near the
Moscow and Ankara have agreed that a policy based on provocations,” Erdogan Czech border and stressed that Stork II will
Turkey will pay for 25% of the natural gas said at a news conference with his Serbian contribute to greater energy security in
it purchases from Russia in rubles, Russian counterpart Aleksandar Vucic. Central Europe.
energy giant Gazprom said in a statement “As long as you try to wage such a war of “We cannot make the same mistake as
quoted by news agencies on September 6. provocations, you will not be able to get the our predecessors in office who did not care
The remainder of the gas would be paid needed result.” about energy security”, Fiala was quoted as
for in euros and dollars, BloombergHT said Erdogan is expected to meet Putin at a saying by the Czech Press Agency, and he
in its report on the deal. The share of the gas regional summit in Uzbekistan next week. praised the recent opening of the pipeline
bill paid in rubles would be expanded over Chinese President Xi Jinping will also connecting Poland and Slovakia.
time, it added, citing unidentified sources. attend. Plans to restart the works to landlocked
Russia wants to de-dollarise trade where Czechia were announced already in May
possible to reduce economic reliance on the following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
USD as a reserve currency, while Turkey EU demand for Azerbaijan gas The project was shelved by the previous
is acutely short of hard currency after cabinet of Andrej Babis (ANO). Czech
spending tens of billions of its FX reserves will hit 12 bcm per year in 2022- ex-premier Bohuslav Sobotka (Social
in a failed attempt at protecting the Turkish Democrats) has recently accused his
lira from severe depreciation. 2023, says Fitch successor Babis of deliberately derailing
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Stork II project in concert with Czech
who has declined to join Western nations in The international rating agency Fitch president Milos Zeman, known to be a
imposing sanctions on Moscow in response Ratings has published a forecast for the long-term Russia supporter, to maintain
to the Russian invasion of Ukraine—arguing demand of the countries of the European Czechia’s high dependency on Russian
Turkey has unique geostrategic imperatives Union for gas and the volume of supplies in imports.
and economic vulnerabilities given its the face of a reduction in gas supplies from Fiala also announced this week that he
economic links to Black Sea maritime Russia. is to attend Thursday’s opening of a new
neighbours Russia and Ukraine, and also The annual demand for natural gas in floating LNG terminal in the Netherlands
needs to keep up good relations with both the EU countries for 2022 is projected at which could provide up to 30% of annual
Moscow and Kyiv so that it might serve as 357 bcm against 397 bcm in 2021. By 2023, gas consumption in Czechia.
a trusted intermediary available to conduct demand is expected to decrease to 339 bcm. Earlier this year Czechia’s majority-
peace talks—first announced plans for Nato At the same time, gas imports to the EU in state-owned energy utility CEZ rented
member Turkey to pay for Russian gas in 2022 are expected to reach 322 bcm, and in out capacity in the Dutch LNG terminals.
rubles after meeting Russian counterpart 2023 313bcm. According to the current gas reserves and
Vladimir Putin in Sochi, Russia at the start According to Fitch Ratings, the demand the new LNG links, Czechia can probably
of last month. Critics accuse Erdogan of of EU countries for Azerbaijani gas in 2022 last until March without imports of Russian
shrewdly sitting on the fence in the Ukraine and 2023 will amount to 12 bcm (in 2021, gas.
conflict, achieving an unprincipled situation Azerbaijani gas supplies to Europe was 8 Czechia has pipeline connections to
that is hugely to Turkey’s benefit. Putin, they bcm). Germany providing infrastructure from the
add, is able to exploit the situation to drive “Our proven reserves are 2.6 trillion west and south but no infrastructure to the
a wedge into the Western defence bloc and cubic meters. Potentially, we can supply north.
undermine European and US attempts to more than 20 bcm to Europe. But you need Some 90% of gas has been coming from
bring Russia to heel. to understand that Europe is not the only Russia, making Czechia one of the most
Russia’s Gazprom and Turkish state market for us,” President Ilham Aliyev energy dependent countries on Putin’s
pipeline company BOTAS last December earlier said in an interview with the Italian regime.
struck a four-year agreement under which newspaper Il Sole 24 Ore on 2 September.
the former will supply the latter with Azerbaijan began supplying gas to
5.75bn cubic metres (bcm) of gas via the Europe – Italy, Greece and Bulgaria –
TurkStream pipeline. Turkey buys up to through the TAP gas pipeline on December

P14 www. NEWSBASE .com Week 36 10•September•2022