Page 22 - SE Outlook Regions 2022

citizens at having their lives and livelihood disrupted, but they were
swiftly coopted by far-right groups.

With the upcoming elections in mind, Vucic and other government
officials were quick to back away from Rio Tinto’s lithium project as the
mood in the country turned against it. Other populist steps including a
one-off €100 handout for young adults were also taken in recent weeks.

In the longer-term, Serbia and its leadership are charting a precarious
course between East and West. Vucic has set EU enlargement as a
priority, while balancing relations with Russia, China, the EU and the
US. The Russians, and more recently the Chinese do not view these
ties with the West with great sympathy.

Meanwhile, Russia continues to be Serbia’s strongest backer in the
unresolved conflict with Kosovo. Serbia is under pressure to normalise
its relations with Kosovo, which unilaterally declared independence in
2008, and finding a resolution to the conflict is the only way either state
can progress towards EU accession. However, any Serbian politician to
advocate for recognition of Kosovo would swiftly find themselves highly
unpopular.

Another potentially major problem for Serbia is the situation in
Republika Srpska, the Bosnian Serb-majority entity in Bosnia &
Herzegovina. Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik wants to return
authority from the state level to the entity level for the armed forces,
judiciary and tax administration, but for others in Bosnia and the region
this looks like a move towards secession. The US has openly
emphasised that relations between Washington and Belgrade will
depend on Serbia's relations with Bosnia.

1.11 Politics - Slovenia

Slovenia is heading towards general elections in spring 2022. This will
pit the government led by Prime Minister Janez Jansa — who critics
say is taking Slovenia down the same illiberal route as Hungary and
Poland — against the opposition parties determined to unseat him.

The pressure on Jansa to resign stepped up in 2021, with the
opposition parties accusing him of degrading Slovenia’s democracy, not
respecting the rule of law and tightening his grip on the media. He has
also clashed several times with EU officials. President Borut Pahor
plans to call a general election for April 24 as the earliest possible date
and to sign a decree on the election date in February.

Four opposition parties, the List of Marjan Sarec (LMS), Social
Democrats (SD), Levica (the Left) and Alenka Bratusek’s Party (SAB),
signed a cooperation agreement on September 28, agreeing to form a
government without Jansa’s rightwing Slovenian Democratic Party
(SDS) should they gain enough votes in the next general election.

Under the deal the opposition parties agreed to “normalise” Slovenia, to
form a government without the ruling SDS and the parties supporting it,

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