Page 38 - SE Outlook Regions 2022

2020. For 2022, consumer prices are expected to rise by 1.5% and
should go up by 1.7% in 2023.

The IMF has projected that consumer prices would rise by 2.9% in 2021
and slow down to 2.1% in 2022.

Croatia’s central bank has also projected that inflation would reach
2.3% in 2021 and slow down to 2.1% in 2022, backed mainly by rising
prices of oil and food.

So far, consumer prices in Croatia increased by 3.8% year-on-year in
October. Meanwhile, producer prices increased 16.6% year on year in
November, after rising by 16.4% y/y in the previous month, according to
statistics office data.

2.4.4 Industrial production

Croatia’s industrial sector was seriously affected by the coronavirus
pandemic, but started recovering in 2021 as the tough restrictions were
lifted. Its pace of growth will depend on the further development of the
pandemic.

Industrial output in Croatia increased 2.7% in year-on-year terms in
October 2021 and by 1.9% month on month, according to the latest
available statistics office data. The y/y rise was supported by the
manufacturing sector that went up by 0.9% y/y, as well as by the
electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply that increased by
13.5% y/y. In the mining sector output moved down by 4.6% y/y.

Compared to October 2020, energy output increased by 10.4% y/y,
followed by durable consumer goods (8.7% y/y), capital goods (3.7%
y/y) and non-durable consumer goods (3.4% y/y), while production of
intermediate goods decreased by 3.1% y/y.

In monthly terms, seasonally and working-day adjusted industrial
production expanded in manufacturing by 0.3%. In mining it decreased

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