Page 33 - SE Outlook Regions 2022

and is set to remain stable at 3.5% in 2023 thanks to expected funds
under the Recovery and Resilience Plan.

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has
projected the most modest economic growth for 2022 – 3%, followed by
a 4.5% expansion in 2023.

Bulgaria’s seasonally adjusted GDP expanded by 4.6% y/y in the third
quarter of 2021, according to preliminary statistics office data.

The main risk for Bulgaria’s economy remains the uncertainty related to
the coronavirus pandemic. If the vaccination rate remains low, the
country will face new waves of the pandemic, which would hamper its
economic growth.

2.3.2 External environment

The IMF has projected that Bulgaria will post a current account surplus
of 0.5% of GDP in 2021 from a deficit of 0.7% of GDP in 2020. The
surplus should fall to 0.3% of GDP in 2022.

The World Bank’s forecast is that the current account surplus will
expand to 1.8% of GDP in 2021 from 0.1% in 2020 and go up to 2.5%
in 2022.

Bulgaria reported a current account deficit of €50.3mn (0.1% of GDP) in
the first nine months of 2021, compared to a surplus of €598.8mn
reported a year earlier, according to preliminary central bank data.

In January-September, the goods deficit stood at €1.96bn, up 90.9%
y/y, while the services surplus expanded 43.7% y/y to €3.42bn. The
primary income posted a deficit of €2.25bn, up 36.3% y/y. The
secondary income surplus contracted 17.3% y/y to €744.8mn.

Exports of goods rebounded in Bulgaria in 2021 thanks to the stronger
summer tourist season, while service exports also expanded

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