Page 32 - SE Outlook Regions 2022

2.3 Macroeconomy - Bulgaria

Bulgaria key economic figures and forecasts

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E 2022F

Nominal GDP (BGN bn) 95.4 102.7 110.0 120.4 120.0

Real GDP (% yoy) 3.4 2.9 2.8 3.7 4.2 4.5 4.4

Unemployment rate (avg, %) 7.6 6.2 5.2 4.2 5.1

Consumer prices (avg, % yoy) -0.8 2.1 2.8 3.1 1.7 3.3

Consumer prices (eop, % yoy) 0.1 2.8 2.3 3.8 0.1 7.8

Current account balance (% of GDP) 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.9 -2.2 3.1 3.2

Source: IMF, World Bank, Bulgarian National Bank, statistics office

2.3.1 GDP growth

Bulgaria’s central bank expects economic growth to reach 3.9% in 2021
and to significantly speed up in 2022 – to 4.7% – then to slow down to
3.8% in 2023. In 2022, the economic activity is expected to reach its
pre-crisis level set in 2019, mainly thanks to higher internal demand and
increasing net exports. Private consumption is expected to remain the
main contributor to the economic growth, but its pace of growth is seen
slowing down compared to 2021 due to the lower wage hikes and net
fiscal transfers to households. Investment in base capital is seen rising
in 2022, also contributing significantly to the economic growth.

Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) made a more
optimistic forecast that Bulgaria’s economy will expand by 4.5% in 2021
and by 4.4% in 2022.

The European Commission projected the lowest economic growth – of
3.8% - for 2021, assessing that the country’s recovery has been held
back by high economic uncertainty and coronavirus containment
measures. In 2022, the economy is seen picking up to 4.1% growth,

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