Page 29 - SE Outlook Regions 2022

Real GDP (% yoy) 3.2 3.2 3.7 2.8 -3.2 3.5 3.3

Consumer prices (avg, % yoy) -1.1 1.2 1.4 0.6 -1.6

Consumer prices (eop, % yoy) -0.3 0.7 1.6 0.3 -1.0

General budget balance (% of GDP) 1.2 2.6 2.3 1.9 -5.3

Current account balance (% of GDP) -4.8 -4.8 -3.3 -2.8 -3.8

Official FX reserves ($ bn) 5.4 6.1 7.0 7.2 8.1

EUR/LC (avg) 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0

USD/LC (avg) 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7

Source: Agency for Statistics of Bosnia and Herzegovina, IMF, CBBH, World Bank

2.2.1 GDP growth

Bosnia’s Directorate for Economic Planning (DEP) estimates GDP
growth of 2.8% in 2021 and growth of 3.2% in 2022. The DEP assumes
that the key pillar of economic growth will be domestic demand and
estimates an average growth rate of private consumption of about 2%
over the next three years (2021: 1.7%, 2022: 1.9%, 2023: 2.1%).

However, the Central Bank of Bosnia & Herzegovina (CBBH) published
more optimistic estimates at the end of the year. According to the
CBBH, GDP growth in 2021 should be 5.8%, and in 2022 growth
should be 3.9%. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts
Bosnia's GDP growth at 3.5% in 2021 and 3.3% in 2022. In the same
period, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development
(EBRD) forecasts Bosnian GDP growth of 4.5% and 3.0%, respectively.

As for the risks to the outlook for the period 2021-2023, the DEP says
they are mostly related to the migration of the population from Bosnia
— especially young, educated and qualified people — which could
result in reduced productivity and slower GDP growth than projected.

29 SE Outlook 2022 www.intellinews.com