Page 62 - SE Outlook Regions 2022

2.9.4 Industrial production

Romania’s industrial production declined again in April-October 2021
after a brief post-COVID recovery, while the outlook for 2022 remains
uncertain.

The country’s industrial output had been dwindling before the crisis, but
that was seen at that time as a sign of consolidation toward more
value-added and highly productive segments, forced by tight labour
markets. At this time, however, the slowdown simply reflects disruptions
across the global production chains that are particularly visible in the
automobile industry. High energy prices have also forced some
industries (such as fertiliser and automotive production) to reduce
operations. In Romania, an accident at the biggest refinery, Petromidia,
also impacted the overall industrial output.

As of October 2021, the 12-month industrial output increased by 6.8%
y/y, after a 9.9% y/y contraction posted in October 2020. The
seasonally-adjusted industrial output in October 2021 was in the region
of the values seen in 2017.

2.10 Macroeconomy - Serbia

Serbia key economic figures and forecasts

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E 2022F

Nominal GDP ($ bn) 40.7 44.2 50.6 51.5 53.3

Real GDP (% yoy) 3.3 2.1 4.5 4.3 -0.9 6.8 4.0

Unemployment rate (avg, %) 15.3 13.5 12.7 10.4 9.0

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