Page 63 - SE Outlook Regions 2022

Consumer prices (avg, % yoy) 1.1 3.1 2.0 1.8 1.5

General budget balance (% of GDP) -1.1 1.4 0.8 0 -7.3 -6.5 -2.4

Current account balance (% of GDP) -1.1 2.0 -2.0 -3.1 -1.9

Official FX reserves (EUR bn) 10.2 10.0 11.3 13.4 13.5

Gross foreign debt (% of GDP) 72.0 65.1 62.2 61.4 65.8

EUR/LC (avg) 123.1 121.4 118.3 117.9 117.6 117.6

USD/LC (avg) 111.3 107.5 100.3 105.3 103.0 99.5

Source: World Bank, IMF, Serbian statistics office, NBS

2.10.1 GDP growth

The National Bank of Serbia (NBS) estimates that GDP will grow by
6.75% in 2021, and that in 2022 it will grow by 4.5%. In line with the
economy’s performance in the first three quarters of the year, the
projected GDP growth for 2021 has been revised upwards from 6.5% to
a range of 6.5-7.0%.

The Serbian economy is expected to grow 4.5% in 2022, the World
Bank said in its Global Economic Prospects, a forecast that is 0.8%
higher than its June 2021 estimate. The World Bank forecasts growth of
the Serbian economy of 4.0% in 2023, which is slightly higher than the
growth estimate of 3.9% in June.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects growth of 4.5% this
year. IMF officials noted in October that the economy was recovering
well from the crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic and that the
economic results have been better than expected.

Due to the new investment cycle, GDP growth is expected in the range
of 4-5% in the coming years, according to the NBS. These estimates
are in line with the IMF’s projections. Risks from the international
environment include the recovery of the eurozone, delays in production
chains, energy crises and high commodity prices, and risks from the
domestic environment to higher foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows
and the growth rate of public investment, according to the NBS.

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