Page 68 - SE Outlook Regions 2022

2.11.2 External environment

The country’s current account surplus is projected at 6.4% of GDP
in 2021 and 6.3% of GDP in 2022 following a surplus of 7.4% of
GDP in 2020, according to the IMF.

Slovenia posted a current account surplus of €1.56bn in the first
nine months of 2021, which is down by 37.6% from the same
period in the previous year, according to central bank data. In
2020, Slovenia posted a current account surplus of €3.3bn, which
is up by 20.2% from 2019.

In the third quarter of 2021, net exports had a negative
contribution to the GDP growth of 5%, on account of the stronger
increase in import compared to exports. With a high level of
investment, including in inventories, import growth was
significantly above export growth.

According to Erste Group, Slovenia’s current account surplus is
seen at 4.5% of GDP in 2022 from 4.8% of GDP in 2021.

Foreign direct investment (FDI) is expected at 2.4% of GDP both
in 2021 and 2022, according to Erste.

2.11.3 Inflation and monetary policy

Inflation has been rising, which the central bank attributed to
several one-off factors. It reached 4.9% in December, of which
higher prices of petroleum products contributed 1.3 pp. The recent
rise in energy prices is attributable to a low-base effect, and high
prices of oil and natural gas on international markets, while prices
of emissions allowances are also rising.

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