Page 8 - SE Outlook Regions 2022

5.10 Markets - Serbia

5.11 Markets - Slovenia
SE Outlook 2021
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Executive summary

Southeast Europe had a year of recovery in 2021 after the shock of the
coronacrisis and initial lockdowns in 2020. The recovery is set to continue in
2022, though there are already a number of new risks to the outlook. Not only
did the region start the year with an explosion in new coronavirus (COVID-19)
cases as the Omicron variant of the virus started spreading rapidly across one
of Europe’s least vaccinated regions, the energy crisis and rising inflation are
also taking their toll.

The experience of the pandemic has varied widely in the 11, mostly small,
states of the region. Tourism-dependent countries like Croatia and Montenegro
suffered the worst in 2020 when international travel slumped; this caused
Montenegro to experience the deepest contraction across the entire emerging
Europe region and its recovery to 2019 levels activity is not expected until
2023. At the other end of the spectrum, Serbia suffered only a small
contraction of around 1% in 2020 and followed this up with a year of strong
growth in 2021 thanks to a combination of its industrial base and the strong
stimulus from the government.

Amid the political turmoil in the autumn, 2021 growth forecasts for Romania,
the region’s largest and most populous economy, were revised downwards, but
robust growth of around 5% is anticipated this year. As the European
Commission noted, the effect of pent-up demand on private consumption is
expected to fade out but growth will be supported by rising employment, falling

8 SE Outlook 2022 www.intellinews.com