Page 5 - AfrElec Week 29 2022

AfrElec COMMENTARY AfrElec

at the latest.
However, separate figures published in March that global energy-related carbon dioxide
in the journal Nature demonstrated that global emissions rose by 6% in 2021 to a record high
annual emissions of CO2 only rose from 33.3bn of 36.3bn tonnes, as coal dominated the world
tonnes in 2020 to 34.9bn tonnes in 2021, repre- economy’s rebound from the coronavirus
senting a 4.8% increase. (COVID-19) pandemic.
Despite rising case numbers and new vari- The 2bn tonne rise was the largest in history
ants, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on in absolute terms, more than offsetting the pan-
CO2 emissions therefore appears to be less in demic-induced decline seen in 2020.
2021 compared to 2020 owing to a reduction in The numbers make clear that the global eco-
restrictive policies. nomic recovery from the COVID-19 crisis has
Crucially, Nature warned that these 2021 not been the sustainable recovery that IEA Exec-
emissions consumed 8.7% of the remaining car- utive Director Fatih Birol called for during the
bon budget for limiting anthropogenic warming early stages of the pandemic in 2020.
to 1.5°C, which if current trajectories continue, He had called for a green recovery after the
might be used up in 9.5 years at 67% likelihood. pandemic that would see investment of up to $3
What this means is that the world is nowhere trillion in renewables energy.
near meeting the 1.5°C for global warming if However, a mixture of rocketing demand for
“business as usual” continues and emissions are electricity and a resumption in activity in the
not drastically reduced. manufacturing and the energy sectors means
The IMF used data from national and interna- that hopes for a pandemic-inspired permanent
tional statistical organisations to provide data to reduction in emissions will not now take place.
help monitor the transition to lower carbon use, However, the IEA had identified as early as
and published in its Climate Change Indicators December 2020 that emissions could rebound
Dashboard. quickly. Birol said that a recovery in emissions,
The new data from the climate dashboard with December 2020 emissions being 2% higher
underscore what some scientists have warned: than in December 2019, suggested a “return to
time is running out. carbon-intensive business-as-usual.” December
The IMF’s data chimes with figures from the 2020 emissions were 60mn tonnes higher than
IEA released in April, which similarly reported those in December 2019.™

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