Page 7 - AfrElec Week 29 2022

AfrElec COMMENTARY AfrElec

Africa
For Africa, the IEA revised down its power strict sanitary measures and extended effects
demand outlook for 2022 by about one per- from the coal shortage for power generation are
centage point to 4%. South Africa is grappling the main drivers. For 2023, we expect demand
with ongoing capacity shortages driven by the growth of close to 4%, making up for some of the
declining availability of its ageing coal fleet and 2022 slowdown.
teething issues on newly-commissioned units of
its two coal megaprojects (Medupi and Kusile). Green Europe
Additionally, delays to IPP procurement pro- Europe is gearing up to reduce its reliance on
grammes that were meant to relieve some of Russian fossil fuel imports by accelerating its
these shortages mean that load shedding and clean energy transition. The implementation of
suppressed demand are likely to continue in the the European Commission’s REPowerEU plan
short term. would greatly accelerate deployment of renewa-
One of the measures Eskom has adopted to bles in the coming years, doubling their share in
deal with the situation is appealing to consum- EU gross final energy consumption from 2020
ers to reduce consumption to help alleviate stress to 2030 and significantly reducing fossil fuel use.
on the system. The continued energy price crisis is fuelling
Capacity shortages on the continent are not debate on wholesale electricity market design,
isolated to South Africa. While electricity out- while governments are trying to cushion high
ages are not uncommon in Nigeria (Africa’s larg- electricity prices with diverse support schemes.
est economy), the situation worsened notably The IEA is uncertain about the future, with the
with two nationwide blackouts occurring within main uncertainties affecting 2023 forecasts for
the space of a month in March and April 2022. electricity demand and generation mix concern
For 2023, the IEA expects around 3% electric- fossil fuel prices and economic growth.
ity demand growth for the continent. As of mid-2022, the IEA expects global elec-
tricity demand growth in 2023 to remain on a
Asia similar path as 2021.
In Asia, the IEA expects demand to grow at Strong renewables growth of 8% and recover-
around 3.4% for 2022, a downward revision by ing nuclear generation could displace some gas
more than one percentage point from early 2022. and coal power, resulting in the electricity sec-
Lower economic growth, high energy prices, tor’s CO2 emissions declining by 1%.™

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