Page 25 - UKRRptJune18

3.0 Macro Economy
SP Advisor's leading macro indicators
Business cycle indicators
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017E
2018E
Real GDP, chg yoy
2.3%
-14.8%
4.1%
5.2%
0.2%
0.0%
-6.6%
-9.8%
2.3%
2.2%
3.1%
Household consumption, chg yoy
11.8%
-14.9%
7.1%
15.7%
8.4%
6.9%
-8.3%
-20.7%
1.8%
4.5%
6.1%
Investments in fixed capital, chg yoy
1.6%
-50.5%
3.9%
7.1%
5.0%
-6.7%
-24.0%
-9.2%
20.1%
17.0%
12.0%
Industrial output, chg yoy
-5.2%
-21.9%
11.2%
8.0%
-0.7%
-4.3%
-10.1%
-13.0%
2.8%
0.5%
3.5%
Nominal GDP, UAH bln
948
913
1,079
1,300
1,405
1,465
1,587
1,989
2,383
2,874
3506
Nominal GDP, USD bln
180
117
136
163
176
183
134
91
93
108
131
GDP per capita, USD
3,891
2,550
2,972
3,580
3,865
4,030
3,117
2,134
2,193
2,541
3077
CPI (eop)
22.3%
12.3%
9.1%
4.6%
-0.2%
0.5%
24.9%
43.3%
12.4%
13.7%
8.9%
CPI average
25.2%
15.9%
9.4%
8.0%
0.6%
-0.3%
12.1%
48.7%
13.9%
14.4%
11.9
Unemployment (ILO methodology, avg)
6.9%
9.6%
8.9%
8.7%
8.2%
7.8%
9.7%
9.5%
9.7%
9.7%
8.8%
Source: SP Advisors, World Bank
3.1 Macroeconomic overview
Ukraine's GDP grew by 3.1% in January-March 2018 y/y , the State Statistics Service of Ukraine reported on May 15. The country's economy grew by 0.9% compared with the previous quarter. The World Bank left unchanged the forecast for the growth of Ukraine's GPD in 2018-2019 at the level of 3.5% and 4% respectively earlier, but that is assuming Kyiv continues to implement reforms recommended by the country’s donors. If they are not implemented, economic growth may slow to 2% the development bank said in a report. The IMF retained the forecast for GDP growth in Ukraine in 2018 at 3.2%, while at the same time worsened it for 2019 to 3.3% from 4%. The NBU predicts the acceleration of GDP growth in 2018 to 3.4% from 2.5% in 2017, a slowdown in 2019-2020 up to 2.9%. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development left unchanged the forecast for the growth of the Ukrainian economy in 2018 at the level of 3% and expects the corresponding growth rate would be maintained in 2019.
25 UKRAINE Country Report June 2018 www.intellinews.com