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3.2 Macro outlook
First Vice Prime Minister – Economic Development and Trade Minister of Ukraine Stepan Kubiv is confident that Ukraine’s economy could reach its pre-crisis level in 2021 if GDP continues to grow at 3-4% annually, Ukrinform reports. He told the National Investment Council that "The forecast for Ukrainian economy growth for 2018-2019 remains positive. According to the government's estimates, GDP will grow by 3% in 2018 and by 3.6% in 2019 ...” But he acknowledged that more dynamic results require GDP growth of 5-7%, and that greater foreign investment is needed.
S&P adjust its GDP growth forecasts. The agency expects that growth in Ukraine will rise to 3.1% in 2018 , but through to 2021, the average real GDP growth will be about 2.9%. In its forecast in November 2017, S&P expected that GDP this year would grow by 2.6% with an acceleration to 3% and 3.2% in 2019 and 2020 respectively. "Economic recovery continues to be driven by strengthening domestic demand, high commodity prices, and the economy's ability to quickly adapt to the Donbas trade blockade," the agency says. "Growth drivers in the Ukrainian economy will remain broadly unchanged, with domestic demand as the main contributor.”
4.0 Real Economy 4.1 Industrial production
Ukraine's industrial output rose 3% year-on-year in April following a 1% y/y growth in the prior month, according to the Ukrstat state statistics service.
Seasonally adjusted output dropped 0.6% month-on-month in April. In January-April, industrial output increased 2.6% y/y.
April manufacturing picked up 0.8% y/y after a 4.6% y/y decline in March. Metallurgy inched up 0.3% y/y (after a 3.7% y/y decline in March), while
26 UKRAINE Country Report June 2018 www.intellinews.com