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4.4.3 Retail sector dynamics
Ukraine’s retail trade turnover grows 7.6% in January-March 2018
compared to the same period in 2017. Retail trade turnover of retail trade enterprises (legal entities) was valued at UAH151.027bn, or $5.8bn, the State Statistics Service reports. The biggest growth was recorded in the Vinnytsia (by 12.3%, to UAH5.676bn), Zakarpattia (by 11.8%, to UAH4.971bn), Mykolaiv (by 10.8%, to UAH4.911bn), Sumy (by 9.9%, to UAH4.265bn), Lviv (by 9.7%, to UAH12.939bn) and Chernihiv regions (by 9.6%, to UAH4.132bn). Growth slowed most in the Chernivtsi and Rivne regions (by 1.9%, to UAH3.321bn and by 3.4%, to UAH3.747bn, respectively).
Kyiv-based brokerage Concorde Capital expects real retail sales will maintain a growth rate of 7-8% year-on-year in 2018, while private consumption will be the major contributor to economic growth.
According to official data, retail sales in real terms increased by 7% y/y in January-April compared to 7.6% y/y growth in January-March.
In January-April, retail sales grew 5.8% y/y. Regionally, the highest growth occurred in the Vinnytsia (11.1% y/y growth), Zakarpattia (9.2% y/y) and Sumy (8.9% y/y) regions, while Rivne (2.6% y/y), Chernivtsi (3.3% y/y) and Zaporizhia (3.5% y/y) were the slowest.
"We don’t expect further slowing in retail sales this year," Concorde's Evgeniya Akhtyrko wrote n a note on May 22. "Amid the continuing growth of real disposable income, the consumption by Ukrainians will continue to grow at least to compensate their thrifty consumer behaviour during the economic collapse in 2014-15."
32 UKRAINE Country Report June 2018 www.intellinews.com