Page 6 - AsianOil Week 08 2023

AsianOil COMMENTARY AsianOil

BP predicts faster decline

in oil and gas demand

BP is forecasting a faster decline in oil and gas demand in a break
from the past.

RUSSIA BP released its flagship annual report, Energy emissions – 75% in Accelerated and more than
Outlook, at the end of January, forecasting an 95% in Net Zero. Net Zero will also involve a
WHAT: accelerated decline in oil and gas consumption shift in societal behaviour and preferences to
BP has released its as a result of fallout from the Russia-Ukraine war support increased energy efficiency and the
flagship Energy Outlook and the impact of the broader energy crisis. greater adoption of low-carbon technologies.
report. In light of soaring global oil and gas prices, This is to say that they are scenarios based on
caused in part by Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine predetermined outcomes.
WHY: and the subsequent severing of energy ties BP’s third scenario, New Momentum, fore-
The UK major sets out between Russia and the EU, countries will pur- casts the current trajectory of the global energy
one scenario based sue greater energy security over the next decade, system, based on current trends and known pol-
on current trends and and this will result in a faster decline in global oil icy directions. It stresses “the marked increase in
existing policies, and and gas demand, BP said. At the same time, the global ambition for decarbonisation in recent
two more based on UK major predicts an accelerated shift towards years, as well as on the manner and speed of
predetermined climate renewable energy – in part because of high oil decarbonisation seen over the recent past.”
goals. and gas prices, and in part because of hydro- The UK cautions that “the scenarios are not
carbon importers developing more domestic predictions of what is likely to happen or what
WHAT NEXT: energy supply. And this will mean that global BP would like to happen.” Furthermore, it states
The company has emissions fall more quickly, BP said. that “the many uncertainties surrounding the
stressed the need for an BP outlines three scenarios in its outlook. transition of the global energy system mean
orderly transition from oil The first two – Accelerated and Net Zero – are that the probability of any one of these scenarios
and gas to avoid future broadly in line with IPCCs scenarios that are materialising exactly as described is negligible.”
crises. consistent with Paris Agreement goals. These Nevertheless, the outlook provides useful insight
scenarios envisage the substantial cut in carbon on how global energy trends may play out over

P6 www. NEWSBASE .com Week 08 24•February•2023