Page 9 - AfrElec Week 02 2021

AfrElec RENEWABLES AfrElec

Africa’s electricity unlikely to

go green this decade

GLOBAL NEW research from the University of Oxford electricity needs from renewable sources, includ-
predicts that total electricity generation across ing all the major alternative sources such as
the African continent will double by 2030, with hydropower, wind and solar generation, by 2030,
fossil fuels continuing to dominate the energy as specified in the National Energy Policy and in
mix – posing potential risk to global climate Intended Nationally Determined Contributions
change commitments. under [the] Paris Climate Change Accord,’ said
The study, published in Nature Energy, uses Calle Schlettwein, Namibian Minister of Water.
a state-of-the art machine-learning technique to ‘We welcome this study and believe that it will
analyse the pipeline of more than 2,500 currently support the refinement of strategies for increas-
planned power plants and their chances of being ing generation capacity from renewable sources
successfully commissioned. It shows the share in Africa and facilitate both successful and more
of non-hydro renewables in African electricity effective public and private sector investments in
generation is likely to remain below 10% in 2030, the renewable energy sector.”
although this varies by region. Schlettwein added: “The more data-driven
“Africa’s electricity demand is set to increase and advanced analytics-based research is avail-
significantly as the continent strives to indus- able for understanding the risks associated with
trialise and improve the wellbeing of its people, power generation projects, the better. Some of the
which offers an opportunity to power this eco- risks that could be useful to explore in the future
nomic development through renewables,” said are the uncertainties in hydrological conditions
Galina Alova, study lead author and researcher and wind regimes linked to climate change, and
at the Oxford Smith School of Enterprise and the economic downturns such as that caused by the
Environment. [coronavirus] COVID-19 pandemic.”
“There is a prominent narrative in the energy The study further suggests that a decisive
planning community that the continent will move towards renewable energy in Africa would
be able to take advantage of its vast renewable require a significant shock to the current system.
energy resources and rapidly decreasing clean This includes large-scale cancellation of fossil
technology prices to leapfrog to renewables by fuel plants currently being planned. In addi-
2030 – but our analysis shows that overall it is tion, the study identifies ways in which planned
not currently positioned to do so,” she continued. renewable energy projects can be designed to
The study predicts that in 2030, fossil fuels improve their success chances – for example,
will account for two-thirds of all generated elec- smaller size, fitting ownership structure and
tricity across Africa, while an additional 18% of availability of development finance.
generation is set to come from hydro-energy “The development community and Afri-
projects. These have their own challenges, such can decision-makers need to act quickly if the
as being vulnerable to an increasing number of continent wants to avoid being locked into a
droughts caused by climate change. carbon-intense energy future,” said Philipp
The research also highlights regional differ- Trotter, study author and researcher at the Smith
ences in the pace of the transition to renewables, School. “Immediate re-directions of develop-
with southern Africa leading the way. South ment finance from fossil fuels to renewables are
Africa alone is forecast to add almost 40% of an important lever to increase experience with
Africa’s total predicted new solar capacity by solar and wind energy projects across the conti-
2030. nent in the short term, creating critical learning
“Namibia is committed to generate 70% of its curve effects.”™

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