Page 6 - FSUOGM Week 46 2022

FSUOGM COMMENTARY FSUOGM

Russian tactics against Ukraine

hit Moldovan energy sector

Moldova is in the front line this winter as Russia's attack on Ukraine spills

over to undermine the republic's energy security.

MOLDOVA REGIONAL stability and energy security problems of the new Eastern Partnership EU
remain in a complicated state, with unpredicta- candidate states – Ukraine and Moldova. From
ble developments that will depend on the sever- now on, their security is a shared responsibility
ity of the winter and the gravity of the effects with the EU, and their energy vulnerabilities
resulting from Moscow's weaponisation of its become a priority as temperatures drop.
energy leverage. Russia's actions to politicise gas
exports in response to EU sanctions and solidar- Russian actions to de-electrify Ukraine: ef-
ity with Ukraine have led to a drastic reduction fects and risks
in Russian natural gas consumption in Europe. Currently, Ukraine has focused its attention and
According to forecasts for 2030, Russia is at resources on restoring control over the territo-
risk of losing half of its current share of global ries occupied by Russian forces in the Kherson
gas exports, from 30% in 2021 to 15% in 2030. region, where the chances of obtaining a U-turn
Against the background of a roughly 80% in the situation are more favourable. On the
reduction in gas supplies to the EU (from 40% other hand, Russia has reoriented its military
of EU imports in the past to 9% today), Russia attacks towards the destruction of Ukraine's
will develop a significant dependence on Asian critical infrastructure, with an emphasis on
markets, especially China, where it sells gas at electrical installations (at least 45 assets), water
discounts of up to 50%. The filling of gas stor- purification systems, sanitation, etc. The goal of
ages in Europe to more than 90% of their capac- these attacks is to cripple the Ukrainian economy
ity due to the massive importing of liquefied gas through forced de-electrification, increasing
reduces the technical possibility of importing material costs and causing new waves of refu-
new volumes. gees or preventing their return. By diversifying
In addition to ensuring its own energy secu- and multiplying the crises to which Ukraine
rity, the EU must in no way ignore the energy is exposed internally, the Russian army wants

P6 www. NEWSBASE .com Week 46 19•November•2022