Page 18 - TURKRptAug21

3.0 Macro Economy
Main Macro Indicators
Q1-19
Q2
Q3
Q4
2019
Q1-20
Q2
Q3
Q4
2020
Q1-20
Q2
Q3
GDP Growth (y/y, %)
-2.6
-1.7
1.0
6.4
0.9
4.5
-10.3
6.3
5.9
1.8
7.0
-
-
Electricity Consumption (y/y, Jul 27)
-1.5
0.4
-1.5
0.5
-0.6
3.3
-11.5
3.6
4.5
0.2
5.7
25.8
7.8
Employed (active, mn)
27.0
26.9
26.9
26.7
26.7
25.1
20.8
25.2
25.1
24.1
25.8
-
-
Population (mn)
-
-
-
-
83.2
-
-
-
-
83.6
-
-
-
GDP (per capita, $)
-
-
-
-
9,127
-
-
-
-
8,599
-
-
-
GDP (current, TRYbn)
925
1,028
1,158
1,208
4,320
1,074
1,036
1,414
1,525
5,048
1,386
-
-
GDP (current prices, $bn)
172
175
204
209
761
177
152
197
192
717
188
-
-
CPI (%, eop)
19.7
15.7
9.3
11.8
11.8
11.9
12.6
11.8
14.6
14.6
16.2
17.5
-
Lira-loans (%, y/y, Jul 23)
3.0
-0.5
4.0
13.9
13.9
19.1
39.4
46.4
43.3
43.3
34.4
17.1
13.9
Policy Rate (%)
25.5
23.9
16.3
11.4
11.4
9.3
7.6
11.1
17.0
17.0
19.0
19.0
19.0
CA Balance ($bn, May)
-1.88
-1.29
5.92
-1.07
1.67
-8.86
-12.4
-8.73
-7.35
-37.3
-7.9
-4.8
-
CA Balance/GDP (%)
-1.1
-0.7
2.9
-0.5
0.2
-5.0
-8.1
-4.4
-3.8
-5.2
-4.2
-
-
Budget (TRYbn)
-36
-42
-7
-38
-124
-30
-80
-31
-32
-173
23
-55
-
Budget Balance/GDP (%)
-3.9
-4.1
-0.6
-3.1
-2.9
-2.8
-7.7
-2.2
-2.1
-3.4
1.6
-
-
USD/TRY (eop, Jul 29)
5.56 5.79 5.65 5.95 5.95 6.61 6.85 7.72 7.44 7.44
8.24
8.70
8.46
The Turkish finance ministry expects Turkey’s official GDP growth rate for Q2 will be announced as in the 20%s, finance minister Lutfi Elvan said on June 25.
For 2021 as a whole, growth looks set to exceed the 5.8% target in the government’s medium-term programme, he added.
The country’s national statistical office TUIK works under the finance ministry. TUIK will release the official GDP growth data for Q2 on September 1.
Earlier in June, JP Morgan upped its forecast for official Turkish growth this year to 6.8%.
Provided Erdogan rides out the growing economic and political turbulence he is facing, including rising economic hardship among ordinary Turks, and stays in power, forecasts for 2021 official growth release will almost certainly get higher in the run-up to March 2022 when the growth data is due to be released.
18 TURKEY Country Report August 2021 www.intellinews.com