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56 Opinion KYIV BLOG:
Did Ukraine provoke the clash in the Sea of Azov?
Ben Aris in Berlin
I’m going to get into trouble asking this question. The problem is that the whole situation in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has become so emotional and polarised that even suggesting Russia is not entirely to blame for the flaring military tensions in the Sea of Azov over the weekend brings down condemnation from Ukraine’s supporters – which include most of the western world.
But there is a question that has to be asked: if Russia is to blame then why would Russian President Vladimir Putin give such an obvious political gift to Ukraine’s President Petro Poroshenko when he is so obviously in such deep political trouble?
With presidential elections now only four months away, Poro- shenko is trailing badly in the polls at least 10 percentage points behind his nemesis opposition leader, former prime minister and head of Batkivshchyna (Fatherland) party Yulia Tymoshenko, and unlikely to make it to the second round after the poll on March 31, 2019, let alone win. Ukraine watchers admit that he has failed to deal with corruption, failed to solve any of the journalist mur- der cases, failed to jail anyone responsible for the deaths during the Euromaidan protests and in general failed to deliver on the promise of the Revolution of Dignity. Ukraine is now the poorest country in Europe and recent polls say 85% of the population believe the country is going in the wrong direction.
A sharp military showdown with Russia, a strongman image of decisive action in the face of an external enemy, the imposition of martial law (and the potential ability to cancel the elections at will) and the opportunity to wear his military uniform in public often is exactly what Poroshenko needs to rescue his campaign. Indeed, these were exactly the tactics Putin used
to bolster his flagging support in 2014 when Russia annexed the Crimea, and later led to a sweeping victory with a record margin in the Russian presidential elections in March. If Ukraine didn't provoke this clash then Poroshenko has just had an extraordinary piece of political luck – and for this reason alone the question must be asked.
Before I go on let me make it clear that Russia is clearly the aggressor in Ukraine, that its proxy forces are fighting an illegal war in Donbas, that the annexation of Crimea in 2014
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Video clearly shows a Russian ship ramming a Ukrainian naval tug in the Sea of Azov
was just that and the Kremlin is working to undermine the legitimate government in Kyiv. None of this is in dispute.
On top of that the authority the Russian coastguard had to stop, ram and board Ukraine’s three ships that tried to traverse the Kerch Straits on November 25 is at best questionable. The decision to park a container ship under the new Kerch bridge amounts to a blockage of Ukraine’s strategically important ports in the Sea of Azov and that is an act of war.
But none of this means Poroshenko is above manipulating the con- flict for his personal political benefit. He remains after all a highly successful Ukrainian oligarch that became rich in one of the most corrupt countries in Europe and was a member of the klepto- cratic former president Viktor Yanukovych’s administration.
Safe passage
The Sea of Azov is not international waters (it’s too small
to have a patch of shared water in the middle beyond the territorial waters that stretch 20km from a country’s beaches) and there is an international border between Russia and Ukraine that runs down the middle.
As the two countries have to co-exist in the sea, Ukraine has guaranteed right of passage through the sea to its ports in its territorial water in the northwest corner of the sea under an agreement signed with Russia in 2003.
The 2003 agreement is the key here. The Kerch straits are actually difficult to navigate, full of shallows and rocks. The protocols of the agreement require ships to check in with the Russian port authorities at Kerch and take on a pilot to help them navigate the straits. As a result there are regularly traffic jams of ships queuing up in the waters on either side of the straits waiting to be allowed to pass.
This is the second time Ukraine has sent military ships through the straits this year, according to reports. Some frigates passed the straits in September with no problems.
What went wrong this time, the Russian side claim, is that unlike in September the three ships at the weekend – two