Page 57 - bne_December 2018_20181207

bne December 2018
Opinion 57
patrol boats and a tug – didn't hail Kerch port for permis- sion and didn't respond to hails from the Russian coastguard when they approached Russian territorial water (on the Russian mainland side of the straits, rather than the disputed territorial waters on the Crimean side of the straits). The Ukrainian ships continued to sail on a course that would have taken them through the straits without permission from the Kerch coast guard.
The Russians claim that the Ukrainian ships entered Russia’s undisputed territorial waters on the eastern side of the straits and that is where the ramming incident took place. This point is now confused as there are multiple conflicting reports, some claiming the incident happened in international waters and others that it happened in Russia’s waters, but the navigation records can clear this up; because the passage is dangerous, ship locations are carefully tracked.
While the right of passage for Ukrainian shipping is guaranteed it is not automatic. Under the 2003 agreement the Russians supervise the passages and Ukraine is obliged
to comply with the protocols, according to bne IntelliNews sources. This is to avoid ships without pilots running aground or collisions between shipping passing in and out of the Sea of Azov. No ships are allowed to simply steam through the straits on their own.
The result was the Russian ships intercepted the three Ukrai- nian ships and video clearly shows one of the Russian ships ramming the Ukrainian ship. The Ukrainian navy subsequently released audio of the captains of the Russian ships talking to each other by radio.
“[Russian Prime Minister Dmitry] Medvedev is panicking,” one operator said on the audio, adding, “We should assault them. We have to destroy them,” and “It seems that the president is in control of all of that shit.”
“This is the second time Ukraine has sent military ships through the straits this year”
The operators also discuss the arrival of 10 men with “incredible physical skills” within the hour, which corresponds to the arrival of Russian Special Operations, or Spetsnaz, troops who boarded and seized the Ukrainian ships.
However, none of this is inconsistent with stopping the Ukrai- nian ships if they were deemed by the Russian authorities to be trying to pass through the straits without sticking to the safe passage protocols – what the Russians have referred to
as “dangerous manoeuvres.” If it was designed as a Ukrainian provocation it would be expected for the Kremlin to panic and
for both the president and prime minister to become involved. Indeed, if it was a planned act of aggression by the Russian side there would be no panic in the Kremlin.
The Ukrainian side claim the opposite and flatly contradict the Russian version of the story. In the statement accompany- ing the audio file the Ukrainians claimed that the Ukrainian vessels did hail the Kerch authorities and did ask permission to pass through the straits.
“At 03.58 in order to comply with international shipping security standards Ukrainian Navy small armoured artillery boat "Berdyansk" contacted the coast post of Russian FSB AF, maritime traffic control KERCH and KAVKAZ and informed them about an intention to pass the Kerch Strait. Information was received, but no response was provided. Nevertheless, on 04.07 negotiations of the port Kerch "BEREG-23" operator with the Russian Black Sea Fleet corvette "Suzdalets" regarding the detection of ships of the Naval Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were recorded,” the statement said.
Someone is lying
The video footage clearly shows the Russian frigate ramming the Ukrainian tug, this throws no light on the crucial issue of if the Ukrainian ships followed the protocols to pass though the straits. Ukraine has produced audio of the Russian operators talking but pointedly has not provided audio of their own ships asking for permission to pass through the straits. What evidence there is from the audio tape is inconclusive.
More damming is the Russian decision to close access to the straits by parking a tanker under the bridge and effectively closing the straits to traffic. According to the Ukrainian navy statement this ship had turned off its Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponder that identifies it
to other shipping, which is a breach of maritime law and opens Russia up to accusations of blockading the straits. (The tanker was removed by the end of the day, else this would be a clear act of war.)
Martial law
The question of who started this fight remains open without conclusive evidence on either side. But the political timing of the Sea of Azov incident makes it highly suspicious and warrants careful review.
The main problem is that Putin, who is widely credited with being a “master tactician” (even if he is also thought to be a poor strategist) seems to have lost the plot with the Sea of Azov and handed Poroshenko a political gift that amounts to his best chance for getting re-elected.
The animosity between Putin and Poroshenko is palpable when they meet in person. And the Kremlin’s best interests are clearly served by seeing Poroshenko lose the election to Tymoshenko, who is at the end of the day, a deal maker.
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