Page 58 - bne_December 2018_20181207

58 I New Europe in Numbers bne December 2018
Russia budget balance RUB bn
Russia’s federal budget in surplus of 3.6% for first time since 2011
Russia oil production (mn barrels per day current)
Russia’s federal budget revenues were RUB15.8 trillion ($233bn) in Janu- ary-October 2018, exceeded expenditures of RUB12.78 trillion by RUB3.02 trillion ($44.1bn) handing the government a surplus of 3.6% of GDP, the Ministry of Finance reported on November 13. The primary surplus, that excludes the cost of servicing public debt, was even higher at 4.5% of GDP.
Russia started this year expecting a budget deficit of 1.3% of GDP, but with the unexpected strong performance of oil prices the situation with Russia’s public finances improved dramatically. Oil prices averaged about $65 per barrel in the first quarter, against the budget assumption for this year of $40.
US overtakes Russia to become the world's biggest oil producer
The US overtook Russia to become the world’s biggest producer of oil in August, according to the US Energy Information Administration data release on October 31, but Russia is expected to win back the lead in the coming months.
Russia has been the biggest single producer of oil in terms of barrels produced a day for several years, but the shale oil revolution in the US has seen production there skyrocket in recent years. As average oil prices rose to over $65 in the first quarter and then to $75 in the second quarter more and more US shale producers, which have higher costs, have become economically viable again. Oil production in the US in August rose to a record 11.346mn barrels per day (mnbd) against 11.21mn from Russia.
Polish growth defies predictions of slowdown in Q3
Polish GDP growth pushed to a seasonally adjusted 5.7% y/y in the third quarter, a flash estimate released by the Central Statistical Office GUS on November 14 showed.
The result is a surprise to the upside, as consensus predicted a slowdown in the second half of the year after dynamic expansion in the first six months.
“The figure is very strong given the underlying performance of the industry and retail sales in the third quarter. Slightly lower growth of the industry and similar dynamics of retail sales growth have not pointed to such an ac- celeration of the economy,” Erste said in a comment on the GUS release.
Turkish inflation again worse than expectations but with a weaker punch
Turkey’s annual consumer price inflation rate moved up to 25.24% in October from 24.52% in September, the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on November 5. It is the highest level on record since the end of 2003 and slightly exceeded expectations.
Respondents to a Bloomberg poll forecast the rate would be 25% where- as Capital Economics anticipated a figure of 25.5%. A Reuters survey produced an average expectation of 24.5%, with predictions ranging from 22.17% to 28%.
GDP growth, seasonally adjusted y/y change in %
Turkey's Annual CPI vs. PPI Inflation
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