Page 9 - AsianOil Week 05 2023

AsianOil PERFORMANCE AsianOil

Chinese gas and oil numbers see

first decline since 1982

CHINA TOTAL oil and gas imports to China were down year-on-year decrease, was announced at a
for the first time in 40 years in some cases in time many Western nations are still struggling
But an economic 2022, with oil use dropping by 3% and gas by to manage on limited fuel imports as a result of
recovery this year is 0.7% to levels not seen since 1982. ongoing sanctions on Russian oil and gas.
expected to drive the According to the Paris-based International It is the first such decline in oil import num-
numbers back up again. Energy Agency (IEA), widespread COVID lock- bers to China since 1990.
downs employed by the central government to At the same time, global demand for oil over
counter the spread of the virus throughout much the last 12 months, however, has risen by 2.2mn
of the year accounted for a large portion of the bpd.
decline in numbers. “With the Chinese economy now recovering,
Analysts are also highlighting Beijing’s recent it will have major implications for oil and gas
push to expand coal output in order to guaran- market balances,” Birol continued.
tee increased levels of domestic energy secu- Officials have said previously that China is
rity as another contributing factor in reduced expected to account for around half of all global
imports. oil demand during 2023; a projected increase of
Speaking in the wake of the figures being roughly 2mn bpd the agency says.
released last week, Fatih Birol, the IEA’s execu- Much still depends on just how China’s econ-
tive director, said he now expects a major turn- omy reacts to a post-COVID world, though.
around as China looks to the post-COVID era. “China is the key uncertainty when it comes
This in turn could send energy prices around to 2023 global energy markets,” Birol continued,
the world higher in the long run, he warns. adding: “how the country’s economy will per-
Much of the rest of the world “seems to be off form will have massive implications for global
the hook this winter,” Birol also said in response energy markets.”
to a warmer-than-usual winter seen across Of equal concern to the plunge in oil num-
China so far this year. bers in China, is the 0.7 cut in natural gas imports
This has led to a relative absence of competi- across 2022; the first drop in gas import numbers
tion for energy resources with Western nations. posted by Beijing in 40 years.
With the United States and a number of Euro- The much publicised drop of 21% on LNG
pean nations grappling with rising energy prices imports alone made up a large portion of this
after slashing fuel imports from Russia, a major tally over the year and saw China drop to num-
cold snap across China would have seen prices ber two behind Japan on the global rankings of
for oil and gas rise significantly during January. importers.
Birol did add, though, that “next winter could Numbers on the gas front are expected to
be more challenging” if the weather proves to be rebound significantly, though, in the coming
colder, and with the Chinese economy having months, with the latest projections showing a
had a year to bounce back. 6.5% increase in Chinese imports expected by
As the world’s premier importer of gas and December.
oil, China’s cut in imports of 390,000 barrels Globally, over the same period, demand for
per day (bpd) throughout 2022, equal to a 3% gas is forecast to increase by around 0.4%. ™

Week 05 04•February•2023 www. NEWSBASE .com P9