Page 10 - FSUOGM Week 05 2023

FSUOGM PERFORMANCE FSUOGM

BP analysts predict 42% slide in

Russian oil output by 2035

RUSSIA ANALYSTS at BP have predicted that Russian place principally in the US as the shift to the
oil production could slide 42% by 2035 as new use of alternative lower-carbon energies there
The UK major points to projects are shelved amid limited access to for- accelerates.”
the loss of markets and eign technologies and depleting output at exist- BP’s outlook for global LNG trade in 2023
the lack of international ing fields. remains much the same as it did in last year’s
partnerships. Prior to the war in Ukraine, Russia was the review.
world’s largest energy exporter, but both its “However, the geographical pattern of that
production of oil and gas have been hit by the trade is different. Restrictions limiting Russia’s
conflict. access to external finance and technology mean
“The prospects for Russian oil production in that the significant expansion in Russia’s LNG
the near term are affected most significantly by exports envisaged in Energy Outlook 202 fails to
the formal and informal sanctions on imports materialise,” BP said. “Offsetting that, the level of
of Russian oil,” BP said in its annual statistical non-Russian LNG exports in 2023 in this year’s
energy review. “Further out, the outlook is most Outlook has been revised up by around 25-40
heavily influenced by the impact of sanctions bcm in New Momentum and Accelerated, with
on Russia’s access to Western technology and the US accounting for more than half of those
investment.” additional exports.”
BP forecasts that Russian oil output could BP added that the EU need for LNG imports
fall from 12mn barrels per day in 2019 to only in 2030 would depend greatly on how much it
between 7-9mn bpd by 2035. reduces natural gas demand.
As for natural gas, BP predicts that the combi- “The extent to which the loss of Russian pipe-
nation of weaker GDP and a reduced preference line exports requires the EU to source alterna-
for imported gas due to energy security means tive supplies of gas depends on how successful
it has cut its forecasts for global gas demand in it is in reducing its demand for natural gas as it
2023 by 130-250bn cubic metres. decarbonises its energy system,” the UK major
“Most of this downward revision in gas said.
demand is matched by reduced pipeline gas BP has slashed its outlook for EU gas demand
trade, driven by the almost total elimination of at the end of the decade by 50-60 bcm, in light of
Russian pipeline exports to the EU,” BP said. its push to reduce reliance on imported supplies
“Production of gas for domestic use is also because of energy security concerns and antici-
slightly lower. Outside of Russia, this fall takes pated weaker GDP. ™

P10 www. NEWSBASE .com Week 06 07•February•2023