Page 4 - FSUOGM Week 40 2022

FSUOGM COMMENTARY FSUOGM

What happened to the Nord Stream

pipelines?

With a lack of evidence, it is worth considering who benefits.

EUROPE INTRIGUE continues regarding what caused Nord Stream pipeline, and prior to the leaks,
major leaks to occur at Russia’s Nord Stream was indicating to Germany that it could solve
WHAT: pipelines in late September, potentially putting the country’s energy crisis if it was permitted to
Evidence is still pending them permanently out of action. It is widely turn on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which was
regarding the leaks at agreed that the leaks were a result of sabotage, also severely damaged.
the Nord Stream 1 and 2 particularly as Swedish seismologists recorded The Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines repre-
pipelines. explosions taking place in the vicinity. However, sented leverage for Russia. Put simply, Mos-
who was to blame remains far less certain. cow had the ability to offer Germany and other
WHY: Russia was quick to point the finger at the European countries extra gas in exchange for
It is widely agreed that US – a charge that Washington has vehemently pressing for a peace in Ukraine that was advan-
sabotage was the cause. denied. Meanwhile the US and its European tageous for Russia. No longer able to turn Nord
allies have largely avoided assigning blame at Stream back on, this leverage disappears. Sanc-
WHAT NEXT: this stage, stressing the need for investigations tions and counter-sanctions that Poland and
The absence of the Nord to continue. Russia have imposed on each other have ren-
Strean pipelines strips Multiple governments are undertaking their dered the Yamal-Europe pipeline inoperable
Russia of leverage. own probes into the incidents. But taking the for the foreseeable future. This leaves only two
lead are Swedish investigators, as it was in that routes for Russian gas to enter Europe: the Turk-
country’s waters where the leaks occurred. Mos- Stream pipeline that comes ashore in Turkey and
cow has not been allowed to participate in the Ukraine’s transit system.
Swedish investigation, and Swedish Prime Min- TurkStream has a capacity of 31.5bn cubic
ister Magdalena Anderson said on October 10 metres per year, but one of its two strings is used
that findings would not be shared with Russian to supply the Turkish market, leaving only 15.75
authorities or with Gazprom. bcm per year of capacity for Europe. Ukraine’s
Various commentators have indicated that transit system, at least prior to the war, is capa-
Russia would have the capacity to carry out such ble of delivering over 100 bcm of Russian gas
an attack, but the same can also be said of the US to Europe that can be fairly easily distributed
and some of its allies. across Central Europe. But that leaves most of
Russia’s ability to ramp up shipments to Europe
Cui bono in Ukraine’s hands. Moscow and Kyiv already
It has been suggested that Russia might have began a dispute over transit terms last month,
blown up the pipelines to further rattle Europe- and Ukraine has declared a force majeure on
an energy markets, and force concessions in the accepting Russian deliveries at one of the two
Ukrainian war. However, this argument does border entry points, claiming the gas has been
not hold up. Russia had already shut down the stolen by Russian proxies.

P4 www. NEWSBASE .com Week 41 15•October•2022