Page 5 - FSUOGM Week 40 2022

FSUOGM COMMENTARY FSUOGM

It is therefore not in Russia’s rational interest in Ukraine is over, Gazprom is unlikely ever
to damage the Nord Stream pipelines, and not again to play such a dominant role in its energy
only because of the billions of dollars of invest- system.
ment it has sunk into the projects. Their partial Then again, there are also reasons to question
destruction means Europe cannot easily U-turn why Washington would commit such a risky act.
on plans to wean itself off Russian gas, and Mos- Even if we assume the US had no ethical qualms
cow has no energy “carrot” to offer European about sabotaging the pipelines, there is a high
governments that face widespread public dis- risk that it could alienate its European allies if
content over soaring energy bills. found out, especially as investigators across
This said, it is an assumption to say that Rus- north Europe are scrambling to establish the
sia is acting rationally. Moscow’s invasion of cause of the leaks. Such a revelation would drive
Ukraine is anything but rational, as it has left Europe away from the US, and could lead it to
Russia a pariah state, facing huge economic adopt a more conciliatory stance towards Russia.
hardship, a potential public backlash to the Assuming sabotage was the cause – and it
human cost, a mass exodus of young and skilled is hard to imagine so many leaks occurring
citizens, and with Nato ever closer to its door. simultaneously unless by design – it is not only
Even if Russian President Vladimir Putin’s mobi- a question of who benefits but also who has the
lisation and recent attacks on Ukrainian energy capability. Ukraine is a clear beneficiary of Nord
infrastructure manage to turn the tide of the war Stream’s demise, but it is doubtful it has the
in Moscow’s favour, any territories it gains will capability of launching such an attack. Deliver-
not be worth the huge cost of this war. ing such damage to underwater pipelines on the
Alternatively, if we pursue Moscow’s claims, other side of Europe would be a much greater
there is some rationale for the US sabotaging feat than exploding the Kerch bridge, if indeed
Nord Stream. The US is desirous that Europe that act was committed by Ukraine.
severs energy ties with Russia, not only to It seems probable that only a nation state
weaken Moscow’s geopolitical power but also would have the ability to wreak such havoc to an
make the continent more dependent on its own, underwater pipeline submerged in trenches in
so-called “freedom LNG.” With Nord Stream out heavily patrolled waters without getting caught.
of action, Europe is less able to backtrack on its But there is still the outside chance that the sabo-
commitments to phase out Russian energy. Even tage was committed by a non-state group.
if the EU decides that it can continue to stomach Awaiting hard evidence, there are no easy
a certain amount of Russian gas once the conflict answers explaining what exactly transpired. ™

Week 41 15•October•2022 www. NEWSBASE .com P5