Page 5 - LatAmOil Week 02 2021

LatAmOil COMMENTARY LatAmOil

They continued to meet throughout the year and The Trump factor
proclaimed themselves to be the country’s only These circumstances are significant, even
legitimate representatives. However, they did though the incumbent US president is due to
not accomplish much. leave office soon anyway. They are important
Then in December 2020, pro-government because Trump, who was already a figure of
candidates won a majority in parliamentary some controversy, is leaving under a cloud, with
elections for Maduro’s National Assembly, and his public standing in tatters. This suggests that
the opposition’s unofficial referendum on the the incoming Biden administration may be even
ouster of the government came to nothing. more eager than it was before to distance itself
from its predecessor’s policies.
Downgrade of recognition In other words, since the sanctions on PdVSA
Guaido’s fortunes have taken a turn for the worse were introduced by the Trump team, Biden and
since the December vote. his advisors may be eager to take a different tack
On January 5, the EU effectively withdrew – and they may be willing to change course more
its recognition of the opposition leader as the rapidly than industry observers have predicted, Since the
legitimate president of Venezuela. Josep Borrell, given that the president-elect has not treated
the union’s top foreign official, said last week Venezuela as a high priority. At the very least, sanctions on
that Brussels no longer intended to treat Guaido they can be expected to abandon Trump’s plan to
as one of the prominent political figures with tighten the sanctions regime, so as to discourage PdVSA were
whom it engaged in Caracas, even though it did US and foreign businesses and individuals from introduced by
not recognise the outcome of the elections that supporting the Venezuelan oil sector in any way.
put Maduro’s allies ahead in the legislature. For example, as Argus Media suggested last the Trump team,
On the same day, the Lima Group, a mul- week, they will probably back away from pro-
ti-lateral organisation formed by 12 countries in posals to fade out the waivers under which a few Biden and his
2017 in the hope of resolving Venezuela’s polit- international oil companies (IOCs) have been
ical and economic crises, took a similar step. It able to continue swapping diesel for Venezuelan team may be
too declined to endorse the December parlia- crude in order to settle outstanding debts. And eager to take a
mentary vote but also downgraded its recogni- going forward, they will probably roll back other
tion of Guaido, referring to him merely as the Trump policies in a humanitarian bid to allevi- different tack
head of “a Delegated Commission headed by its ate the dire social and economic situation in the
legitimate board of directors, established by the South American country.
National Assembly.” Even so, Guaido is not likely to fade into the
These developments left the Trump adminis- background just yet. One of the biggest wins
tration as the last strongly committed defender he and his allies have scored over the last two
of Guaido’s claim to lead Venezuela. years is gaining control over Citgo, the US-based
They also occurred against a backdrop of refinery operator that is a subsidiary of PdVSA,
speculation that President-Elect Joe Biden despite repeated attempts by Maduro to bring
might ease up on Venezuelan sanctions – and the company back under PdVSA’s jurisdiction.
on the day before Trump’s reputation took a As such, the opposition leader is sure to con-
nosedive because of the violent riot in which his tinue playing a role in US sanctions policy, even
supporters stormed and occupied the US Cap- if he does so only by criticising changes made by
itol building. the Biden administration. ™

Fuel shortages have become widespread in Venezuela (Photo: El Cual)

Week 02 14•January•2021 www. NEWSBASE .com P5