Page 107 - RusRPTDec20

second wave of coronavirus. ​In Russia, traffic stood at 7mn PAX, -39% y/y (-32% y/y in September). According to ​MAA,​ domestic traffic fell throughout the month, while international traffic was relatively stable. In Turkey, traffic was at 6mn PAX, down 58% y/y (-59% y/y in September). In Europe, traffic declined 72% y/y (-69% y/y in September), on our calculations. Looking forward, we see traffic remaining depressed in November and December, with triggers only coming in 1Q21, when countries might start to negotiate opening their borders. In Russia, traffic was at 7mn PAX, down 39% y/y. In the largest airports, domestic traffic declined throughout the month (having been up 7% y/y in September), while international traffic saw less of a change, down c.80% y/y (-78% y/y in September). Aeroflot’s Group traffic was at 3mn PAX, down 47% y/y (-40% y/y in September), with the declines at Aeroflot Airlines and Rossiya accelerating (as they did at other airlines). However, one company stood apart, Pobeda, with PAX still up 11% y/y, and we think there is a chance that it will not enter the red territory in November and December, when demand for flights is set to remain depressed. Other industry metrics are as follows: fuel prices were at c.RUB28k/t, a decline of 41% y/y, and the average ticket price was down c.12% y/y. The latter was partly due to the decline in domestic prices and partly due to there being fewer international flights (which are more expensive, on average).
107 ​RUSSIA Country Report​ December 2020 www.intellinews.com