Page 109 - RusRPTDec20

(Pyaterochka.Delivery and Perekrestok.Vprok).
E-grocery is an important part of X5’s strategy to transform its operations, as it aims to achieve a 20% share of the respective market by 2023 and ensure that the digital businesses generates 5% of total revenues by then. We think that X5 will hold on to its top position in e-grocery, due to its competitive advantages, including high purchasing power as the overall grocery market leader (a 13% share in 9m20), existing infrastructure (43 DCs serving 17,352 stores in 66 of Russia’s 85 regions) and the ability to leverage its loyalty card base (44.5mn people).
X5’s GDRs are up 12% YTD and now trade at a 2020F EV/EBITDA of 6.3x and P/E of 15.2x. We think that the company’s strong operations are mostly priced in by now and await more details on the operating conditions and restricitons in 4Q20-1Q21.
Top-10 e-grocery operators RUB bn
Company
9m20
9m19
Chng, YoY
X5 Retail Group
12.7
2
3.15x
Utkonos
11.6
7.2
61%
Sbermarket
11.5
1.4
8.4x
Ozon.ru
7.9
3.4
2.3x
Wildberries
7.5
0.9
8.5x
Vkusvill
7
n/a
-
Yandex.Lavka
6.3
n/a
-
iGooods
5.7
n/a
-
Samokat
5.4
n/a
-
Azbuka Vkusa
2.7
n/a
-
Source: Infoline, VTB Capital Research
109 ​RUSSIA Country Report​ December 2020 www.intellinews.com