Page 110 - RusRPTDec20

9.1.6​ Agriculture sector news
The Ministry of Agriculture has submitted a draft resolution on the potential grain export quota. ​The proposal is for it to last from 15 February 2021 until 30 June 2021, for a total amount of 15mnt, effective for countries outside the Eurasian Economic Union and covering wheat, barley, corn and rye. In MY21 (started in July), the Russian grain harvest is to go up 5% y/y to 127.5mnt while exports could increase 9% y/y to 49.5mnt, with 29.7mnt to be exported in the first half of the year, according to the Ministry of Agriculture. In July-October, grain exports from Russia surged 7% y/y to 20mnt as global prices were favourable (up 14% y/y to $246/t) and companies accelerated flows in light of the trade regime uncertainties. Coupled with the weaker local currency, domestic grain prices increased 10-30% y/y for various classes. The export quota was in place in April-June of MY20 and stood at 7mnt as a measure to secure domestic supply and keep price growth down. According to the ministry’s forecasts, the current quota of 15mnt could be achieved if the exports of key grain crops do not exceed 4.8mnt from 1 January 2021 - 14 February 2021.
110 ​RUSSIA Country Report​ December 2020 www.intellinews.com