Page 5 - MEOG Week 40 2022

MEOG COMMENTARY MEOG

Targets (mbpd)
October 2022 November 2022 Increase (mbpd)
OPEC
Algeria 1.055 1.007 -0.048
Angola 1.525 1.455 -0.07
Congo (Brazzaville) 0.325 0.31 -0.015
Equatorial Guinea 0.127 0.121 -0.006
Gabon 0.186 0.177 -0.009
Iran Exempt Exempt
Iraq 4.651 4.431 -0.22
Kuwait 2.811 2.676 -0.135
Libya Exempt Exempt
Nigeria 1.826 1.742 -0.084
Saudi Arabia 11.004 10.478 -0.526
UAE 3.179 3.019 -0.16
Venezuela Exempt Exempt
Total 26.689 25.416 -1.273

Non-OPEC
Azerbaijan 0.717 0.684 -0.033
Bahrain 0.205 0.196 -0.009
Brunei 0.102 0.097 -0.005
Kazakhstan 1.706 1.628 -0.078
Malaysia 0.594 0.567 -0.027
Mexico 1.753 1.753 0
Oman 0.881 0.841 -0.04
Russia 11.004 10.478 -0.526
Sudan 0.075 0.072 -0.003
South Sudan 0.13 0.124 -0.006
Total 17.167 16.44 -0.727
OPEC+ 43.856 41.856 -2.00

Action points security, and he is directing the Secretary of
The output reduction – and consumers’ displeas- Energy to explore any additional responsible
ure – only serves to highlight the prescience of actions to continue increasing domestic produc-
Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser’s recent repe- tion in the immediate term.”
tition of criticism that the challenges in supply- However, the SPR has reached its lowest level
ing the market are largely borne of long-term since the mid-1980s and will continue to fall
upstream underinvestment. until the end of the year, and may drop below
Nasser has long been critical of the lack of 400mn barrels with more than half of this already
balance with which developed nations have accounted for under Congress-mandated sales.
approached the energy transition while doing This significantly limits the options available to
little to reduce reliance on imports, all while crit- the US in terms of further SPR releases.
icising the regimes of exporting nations. Amid It was perhaps with this in mind that the
the shortfall on physical markets as sanctions White House statement added: “In light of
and supply chain issues persist, the tail is firmly today’s action, the Biden Administration will
wagging the dog. In their joint statement, Sul- also consult with Congress on additional tools
livan and Deese reiterated the US Department and authorities to reduce OPEC’s control over
of Energy’s intent to “deliver another 10mn energy prices,” perhaps alluding to efforts to
barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to push forward the NOPEC bill which is aimed at
the market next month, continuing the historic targeting the group’s ability to steer the market.
releases the President ordered in March.” This Such a move would need to pass through
has delivered around 850,000 bpd since June. Congress and should it be implemented, it would
They added: “The President will continue surely be the final nail in the coffin in relations
to direct SPR releases as appropriate to pro- between Biden and Washington’s key Middle
tect American consumers and promote energy Eastern allies Saudi Arabia and the UAE.™

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