Page 10 - TURKRptJun20

Germany’s Christian Democrats and Chancellor Angela Merkel are shy of being pictured with Erdogan, and at the same time they show their institutional heritage in tying their hands back in ways that provide full support for the Turkish strongman’s crimes.
China and Japan do not bail out anyone. Vladimir Putin and other populists with limited means have nothing to offer Erdogan in $ terms.
Some efforts at reprising the role of “good kid” for the West were lately made by Turkey, but it’s the potential dollars in the pipeline that actually matters and what could really flow from this better behaviour?
The only possible solution—as advised countless times by sensible economists with no hope of imagining what goes on in Erdogan’s brain—is to hand the keys to Turkey’s ledgers to the IMF. There again, look at the case of Argentina. Even that solution might not drain this bog. Besides, to go back on his so-many-times-uttered pledge to run a country that never has need of the Fund on his watch, Erdogan would require a guarantee that he could not end up on trial in the international courts and that he would be able to do anything necessary to push back pressure for early elections.
There is no working out an equation for external help​ unless some kind of game-changing development occurs.
Within Turkey, everyone discusses the possibility of snap polls​. This of course would translate into more demand for FX, because no-one knows what would happen during the election process. Crud and fans spring to mind.
The air is thick with intrigue and apprehension. Kemal Can on May 22 looked at the nonstop snap polls talk in his column for Duvar English, headlined “What’s behind the AKP government’s restlessness?”. Exploring anxieties such as the very real fear among many, frustrated at the lack of answers, that the end of all Turkish democracy is at hand, he posed the question: “Snap elections or no elections at all?”
With only $50bn gross in FX and $35bn gross in gold reserves, the “no elections at all” option should be a bit tricky to achieve, given that the lira printed by the central bank is not edible and the country’s agricultural production is import-dependent.
In this respect, some shocking national security jeopardies such as a military coup attempt or jihadist or Kurdish PKK bombings in major cities, or some other surprise yet to see the light of day in Turkish politics, might press the reset button.
Some Erdogan adherents are not averse to targeting opposition figures with death threats. Pathetic provocations have also lately come back in vogue.
Another avenue is the “flashy package”. Market opportunities could be presented that would help enduring foreign besties such as the British Tories or foreign investor advisors muddy the picture as to the actual level of authoritarianism and lawlessness in Turkey. The dictatorial regime might then be suited and booted for new chapters.
Erdogan’s current crutch, ultra-nationalist MHP leader Devlet Bahceli, has, meanwhile, been teeing up some new legislation that would prevent two new political parties formed by ex-Erdogan allies from participating in elections.
The picture is nothing if not murky and, as Turkey’s leader of 17 years creates bigger and bigger problems in people’s lives, the quest for understanding as to what Erdogan is up to (does even he know what he is trying to do is another common enquiry) goes on.
10​ TURKEY Country Report​ June 2020 ​ ​www.intellinews.com