Page 11 - TURKRptJun20

“Within the debates regarding the rising political tensions, the dominating view holds that the government is attempting to bolster its power and remove the obstacles hindering this goal. A number of explanations are put forward. While some argue the government is seeking to consolidate its voter base and call for snap elections, others contend it is paving the way for fully-fledged authoritarianism and do away with elections altogether. Such claims are backed by the government’s moves against opposition figures and its blatant threats. In recent times, the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) has become a main target [a mention of the non-stop attacks on the pro-Kurdish HDP could be made here—Ed]. Besides, the frequent assaults on media and civil society institutions corroborate this. A government’s ability to endure has to do with its actual competence and the nature of the opposition. But there’s little the government can do to remove its most formidable obstacle, that of structural and unsolvable problems,” Can wrote in his column.
“I’m saying that they will rig the elections. Understand it as you please. They will interfere with votes, as they already intervened in the past elections. They murdered our people at the ballot box,” Islamist opposition Felicity Party chair Temel Karamollaoglu remarked in an interview on Turkish daily Sozcu’s YouTube channel.
Felicity Party ballot box observers Hasan Aktas and Ilyas Aktas were killed and one person was injured in a shooting at a polling station in the eastern Anatolian Malatya province during the local elections of March last year. The attackers were reportedly relatives of the AKP’s mayoral candidate Mikail Suluk. Four people were given life sentences for the attack but that was before the latest amnesty law was introduced earlier this year.
July is seen as a critical juncture as the parliament’s current MPs will qualify for retirement benefits in that it will be two years since the last general election. It is speculated that some MPs could resign from the AKP and that the opposition could then achieve a winning vote to call snap polls.
Erdogan and Bahceli will try to avoid losing the initiative in calling elections. The hopelessness when it comes to the prospect of a true economic recovery is one reason for them to keep control of the initiative and call for a vote at their desired moment. The Turkish economy will only collapse further as time goes on.
Poverty, which has been managed with social support payments for the masses that at the same time secures them as a source of votes, has turned to hunger. By any analysis, Erdogan has no chance in any kind of fair elections if he does not find some hard currency post-haste. This reality fuels the “no elections at all” fears. Erdogan may not make a similar mistake to the blunder that led him to call for the Istanbul “revote” that resulted in a humiliating defeat.
Supply, demand, divine promise
The lira supply is growing. The total value of TRY banknotes and coins in circulation jumped to TRY209bn as of May 15 from TRY149bn as of end-February, while TRY sight deposits jumped to TRY369bn from TRY262bn in the same period in parallel to booming loans and quantitative easing (QE) performed by the central bank.
The government deficit and domestic borrowing are booming too, while the USD supply is also expanding but almost none of it ends up on the USD/TRY trading board.
While hoping that some dollars printed by the Federal Reserve will make it through, the government is desperately trying to curb the lira supply for trading.
11​ TURKEY Country Report​ June 2020 ​ ​www.intellinews.com