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their lira assets like crazy since lira liquidity has dried up abroad. Former portfolio manager Murat Kubilay thinks ​they expect a meteor to hit Turkey and that they don’t want to be on the scene when it does​.
In any case, the government should keep ready some $10-20bn worth of reserves for this account if it is not planning to impose additional capital controls.
A sovereign eurobond sale would help here but the Treasury may face a 10% coupon and Finance Minister Berat Albayrak’s latest investor meeting, during which the lira started sliding even as he made commitments to supposedly lend it some heft, was not helpful when it comes to preparing the ground for a successful eurobond issue.
There is no sign of an upcoming eurobond sale by the banks or corporates. Eurobond redemptions will be considered under the external debt refinancing item below.
External debt refinancing under financial account
As of end-March, Turkey was obliged to roll over a total of $151bn of external debt, excluding obligations to foreign branches and affiliates, in the next 12-month period.
BoP data suggested that the external debt rollover ratio for banks stood at 77% and for corporates at 94% in March.
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and the World Bank helped with loan rollovers in April and May, but the renewal rates remained more or less the same.
A rollover average of 90% means payments worth 10% of $151bn. Let’s say $10-15bn.
The problem in rollovers is a rather big one—such money does not exist in Turkey.
Unidentified flows
In March, $4bn took flight from Turkey via the net errors and omissions item. It seems that the outflows continued in April and May—President Recep Tayyip Erdogan issued a warning to those who were “smuggling” FX out of Turkey.
Sudan recently repatriated its former president Omar Al-Bashir’s $4bn. Al-Bashir was not a "world leader" like Erdogan. Erdogan may dig into his pockets or once more let down the money laundering gumshoes or increase pressure on some tycoons to return their money to the country.
However, it should be observed that the unidentified inflows channel has not worked out since last year.
Expectations and domestic FX demand
Global expectations obviously suggest shaky times ahead. New external shocks could undermine Turkey at any time during the remainder of 2020.
The ongoing war games Turkey is embroiled in in Syria and Libya, a new wave of the coronavirus or some other global surprises should be included on the list here.
In foreign policy, Ankara’s only visible allies are Donald Trump and Qatar. Some elements of Western establishments such as the UK government,
9​ TURKEY Country Report​ June 2020 ​ ​www.intellinews.com