Page 5 - LatAmOil Week 23 2022

LatAmOil COMMENTARY LatAmOil

It would have been a move away from Duque’s eliminating corruption and as a determined
right-leaning, pro-business positions to the opponent of the leftist ideologies favoured in
leftist and environmentalist stances favoured neighbouring Venezuela. Meanwhile, Petro has
by Gustavo Petro, a member of the Humane an advantage of his own – that of being seen as
Colombia party running as the candidate of the a clear departure from the Duque administra-
Historic Pact alliance. tion, which has abysmally low approval ratings
In stark contrast to Duque, Petro has prom- in public opinion polls.
ised to phase out new oil development projects
and form a global coalition to fight climate What next for IOCs?
change. In January, he outlined his policy As of press time, it was not entirely clear which
agenda in an interview with Bloomberg, saying candidate was likely to win on June 19.
he hoped to transform Colombia into a country Hernandez was reported to be polling
with a knowledge-based and tourism-fuelled slightly ahead of Petro, but the race is too close to
economy. A major component of this shift call. As such, IOCs are still partially in the dark
would involve calling an immediate halt to all as to what they might expect from Colombia’s
new oil exploration, he said. next presidential administration.
Under these circumstances, Petro explained, Certainly, the matter is not entirely obscured. Neither the
Colombia could continue to develop its exist- Petro has talked openly about what he wants
ing oil and gas fields but would not explore any to do if he becomes president, and Bayon has IOCs working in
undeveloped sites or launch any greenfield pro- spoken just as openly about what Ecopetrol
jects. This would allow the country to make the might do if the new presidential administration Colombia nor
transition away from fossil fuels over a period of sought to curtail efforts to explore for oil and gas.
about 12 years, he stated. In other words, in the event of a Petro victory, Ecopetrol are
IOCs could probably expect to see new explo- comfortable with
First round ration opportunities drying up, especially with
Not surprisingly, neither the IOCs working in respect to unconventional fields where hydrau- the prospect of a
Colombia nor Ecopetrol, the national oil com- lic fracturing (fracking) techniques would have
pany (NOC), were comfortable with the pros- to be used to optimise drilling programmes. Petro victory
pect of a Petro victory. Indeed, Ecopetrol’s CEO They might also expect to encounter a general
Felipe Bayon said in February that his company shift in the government’s priorities away from
was ready to take legal action in order to uphold hydrocarbons and toward renewable energy and
its contractual and corporate rights and prerog- decarbonisation projects.
atives with respect to new exploration. The way forward after a Hernandez win is
Petro did appear to be heading for a win for less clear. The “TikTok candidate” has gener-
much of the lead-in to the first round of the vot- ally taken a pro-business stance, but he has not
ing on May 29. He was frequently described as had much to say about oil and gas specifically,
the front-runner, and he spent months as the beyond calling for more investment in all forms
top-polling candidate in the race. Furthermore, of energy – renewable as well as fossil fuels. He
he went on to secure more votes than any other has expressed some support for fracking in the
candidate on May 29. past but now says he opposes Ecopetrol’s pilot
However, he did not win the election out- projects. If Hernandez wins, then, he may not
right, as he did not take more than 50% of the devote much of his personal attention to the oil
ballots. As such, he must now proceed to a run- and gas industry, leaving it instead in the hands
off election on June 19 with the second-ranking of technocrats and professional managers such
candidate – Rodolfo Hernandez Suarez, a busi- as Bayon. If so, Colombia’s policy regime and
nessman and real estate tycoon who launched investment climate may not change much, at
his own independent campaign for the presi- least not in the short term.
dency earlier this year. In the meantime, voters have less than two
Hernandez was virtual unknown on the weeks to decide. ™
political scene before this spring, but his cam-
paign quickly took fire. His right-leaning pop-
ulist statements went viral through TikTok and
other social media apps, along with his compar-
isons of Petro to Nicolas Maduro, the president
of Venezuela. (A majority of Colombian voters
remain deeply suspicious of Venezuela and its
government’s devotion to Bolivarian socialism.)
Official election results show that Petro won
40.32% of the votes cast on May 29, while Her-
nandez took 28.15%. This means that the out-
come of the run-off will depend on which of the
two can attract more support from the remain-
ing 31.53% of voters.
Hernandez will have to work harder than
Petro to top the threshold of 50% plus one vote.
However, he has the advantage of being seen as
an unconventional outsider whose focus is on Colombia’s National Electoral Council will oversee the vote (Photo: CNE)

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