Page 10 - UKRRptFeb20
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2018 – 9.8%. With inflation seemingly under control, the National Bank of Ukraine plans to continue to aggressively cut interest rates from today’s rate of 13.5%
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) forecasts that the nation's economic growth will reach 3.5% year on year in 2020 vs 3.3% y/y in 2019, the regulator said in a statement on January 30. Growth will accelerate "to around 4% in the following years", according to the regulator. Ukraine’s real GDP rose 4.1% y/y in the third quarter of 2019, or 0.6% quarter on quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis.
Ukraine’s off the books, shadow economy amounts to $83bn, according to a study by Yury Kharazishvili, chief researcher at the Institute of Industrial Economics of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine. If accurate, Ukraine’s $150bn GDP is really $233bn. With this accounting, GDP per capita rises to $5,833.
4.0 Real Economy 4.1 Industrial production
Ukraine's industrial output fell 7.7% year on year in December after sliding 7.5% y/y in November (in 2019, industrial output decreased 1.8% y/y vs. 1.6% y/y growth in 2018), the nation's state statistics service Ukrstat reported on January 22. Seasonally adjusted output declined 1.1% month on month.
Manufacturing output shrank 5.4% y/y in December (after a 6.4% y/y decline in November). In particular, the fall in machinery production deepened to 14.5%
10 UKRAINE Country Report February 2020 www.intellinews.com
