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y/y (from 12.7% y/y in November). Metallurgy output dropped 10.0% y/y (vs. a 14.2% y/y plunge in November). In addition, food production fell 3.4% y/y (vs. a 4.7% y/y decline in October).
Mining output decreased 8.5% y/y in December, vs a 7.9% y/y drop in November. In particular, coal production plunged 17.3% y/y, oil and natural gas production slid 1.9% y/y, and iron ore output fell 9.4% y/y. Output of electricity and natural gas fell 15.7% y/y in December, vs a 12.0% y/y drop in November.
Evgeniya Akhtyrko at Kyiv-based brokerage Concorde Capital wrote in a note on January 23 that "the sad state" of Ukraine’s mining and manufacturing did not change noticeably in December. Meanwhile, a decline in the supply of electricity and natural gas deepened due to lower demand, which has been driven by abnormally warm weather.
"We don’t expect any significant improvement in industrial production in the nearest months, as the situation for Ukraine’s metallurgy and iron ore sectors at the external markets is likely to remain unfavourable," she added.
4.2​ Inflation
Of the improvements made to Ukraine’s economy in 2019 inflation is by far the biggest success​. The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) didn't just control inflation – it crushed it. Even the regular was surprised at how fast inflation fell over the course of the year, reaching the NBU 2020 target rate a year earlier than expected.
Part of the reason was the extremely high interest rates maintained by the central bank that meant Ukraine still has one of the highest real interest rates even after the regulator made a series of big rate cuts.
Inflation in Ukraine is expected to end 2019 at 6%, compared to 9.8% in 2018, ​and 13.7% in 2017, Oleg Churiy, a deputy central bank governor, tells Ukrainian Wealth Management Forum, organized by the Adam Smith Institute in Kyiv. “We have a strong disinflation trend -- at the end of the year, we expect
11​ UKRAINE Country Report​ February 2020 ​ ​www.intellinews.com