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Public trust in Ukrainian President Zelenskiy has fallen dramatically since September, according to the latest poll published on December 26. About 30.9% of Ukrainians said they don’t trust Zelenskiy, compared to 62.6% of Ukrainians who do, resulting in a positive balance of 31.7%. In September, about 13.5% of Ukrainians said they don’t trust Zelenskiy, compared to 79.4% who do, resulting in a positive balance of 65.9%, according to the same poll. The Armed Forces of Ukraine enjoys the most trust among the public, enjoying a positive balance of 48.3%, the poll said. It was followed by the church (39.8%), volunteer organizations (38.6%), and the State Service on Emergency Situations (33.4%). The poll was conducted by the Razumkov centre and Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Fund between December 13 and 18 involving 2,017 respondents.
In a one-year switch, 60% of Ukrainians consider President Zelenskiy the major driver of reform in the country, according to a nationwide poll by the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation. One year ago, in an answer to the same question by the same polling group, only 24% said that President Poroshenko was Ukraine’s chief driver of reform. In the new poll, conducted in December, respondents listed ‘oligarchs’ – 51% -- and ‘bureaucrats’ – 43% - as the top two reform blockers.
3.0 Macro Economy
Business cycle indicators
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018E
2019E
Real GDP, chg yoy
2.3%
-14.8%
4.1%
5.2%
0.2%
0.0%
-6.6%
-9.8%
2.3%
2.5%
3.3%
2.70%
Household consumption, chg yoy
11.8%
-14.9%
7.1%
15.7%
8.4%
6.9%
-8.3%
-20.7%
1.8%
7.8%
8.9%
4.90%
Investments in fixed capital, chg yoy
1.6%
-50.5%
3.9%
7.1%
5.0%
-6.7%
-24.0%
-9.2%
20.1%
18.2%
14.3%
7.00%
Industrial output, chg yoy
-5.2%
-21.9%
11.2%
8.0%
-0.7%
-4.3%
-10.1%
-13.0%
2.8%
0.4%
1.1%
2.50%
Nominal GDP, UAH bln
948
913
1,079
1,300
1,405
1,465
1,587
1,989
2,383
2,983
3,559
4,021
Nominal GDP, USD bln
180
117
136
163
176
183
134
91
93
112
131
146
GDP per capita, USD
3,891
2,550
2,972
3,580
3,865
4,030
3,117
2,134
2,193
2,638
3,077
3,336
CPI (eop)
22.3%
12.3%
9.1%
4.6%
-0.2%
0.5%
24.9%
43.3%
12.4%
13.7%
9.8%
7.10%
CPI average
25.2%
15.9%
9.4%
8.0%
0.6%
-0.3%
12.1%
48.7%
13.9%
14.4%
10.90 %
8.20%
Unemployment (ILO methodology, avg)
6.9%
9.6%
8.9%
8.7%
8.2%
7.8%
9.7%
9.5%
9.7%
9.9%
9.1%
8.00%
Source: SP Advisors
3.1 Macroeconomic overview
GDP growth this year is expected to be 3.7% after a poor showing in
2019.
However, the economy has been stabilized and the main parameters are improving.
Looking ahead, a Reuters poll of economists predicted on January 10 that inflation in 2020 will be 5.2%. In recent years, Ukraine’s inflation rate was: 2013 - 0.5%; 2014 - 24.9%; 2015 – 43.3%; 2016 – 12.4%; 2017 – 13.7%; and
9 UKRAINE Country Report February 2020 www.intellinews.com
