Page 7 - GLNG Week 12 2021
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GLNG                                         COMMENTARY                                               GLNG




























                         and Trekhbugornoye fields. It is not anticipated  the Yamal peninsula, using resources at the Tam-
                         online until 2027 or later, according to the  beyskoye field. The government envisages its
                         government. The start date for Arctic LNG-3,  launch in 2030. There is also Rosneft’s 4.3mn tpy
                         meanwhile, will depend on progress in explo-  Pechora LNG project, also in the far north. This
                         ration, the government says. Its resource base is  project has been frozen since failing to secure an
                         the Severo-Obskoye field, currently estimated to  export licence, and the government is not fore-
                         hold 273.6 bcm in C1+C2 reserves.    casting a launch date.
                           Another, somewhat unique project is Yakutsk   Other, even more distant, prospects include
                         LNG, slated to be built on the mainland shore  Gazprom’s 30mn tpy Shtokman project,
                         of the Russian Far East. (See: YATEC eyes Rus-  expected online no earlier than 2035, and Ros-
                         sian LNG foray, page 12) It is unique first of all  neft’s 30mn tpy Kara LNG and 35-50mn tpy
                         because it is led by a relatively small gas company  Taymyr LNG ventures, forecast to be up and
                         called Yakutsk Fuel and Energy Co (YATEC),  running in 2030-2035. Rosneft’s Far East LNG
                         owned by investment group A-Property, rather  could also undergo a 10mn tpy expansion by the
                         than one of the main players in the Russian gas  late 2030s, according to the government.
                         market. Secondly, the terminal will be built far   There is considerable uncertainty about the
                         away from available gas supply, requiring the  pace of Russian LNG development, given the
                         construction of a 1,300-km pipeline. The gov-  doubts about how feasible some of these ven-
                         ernment’s programme envisages Yakutsk LNG  tures are. The government projects that national
                         commencing operations in 2026-2027, based on  LNG output could reach between 46 and 65mn
                         820 bcm of initial gas-in place.     tonnes by 2024, rising to 63-102.5mn tonnes by
                           Next there is the 6.2mn tpy Far East LNG pro-  2030. By 2035, production could range from
                         ject, backed by Rosneft and its US partner Exx-  anywhere between 80 and 140mn tpy.
                         onMobil. Rosneft has been trying to develop its   The government’s programme is also aimed
                         own liquefaction capacity for many years with-  at expanding the use of LNG for gasification.
                         out success. Far East LNG is expected online in  Given its size, Russia has had difficulty provid-
                         2027-2028, but the project is yet to reach an FID.  ing gas to energy consumers in its more remote  The government’s
                           Another in the line-up is the 13.3mn tpy Ust-  and sparsely populated regions. LNG, which
                         Luga LNG project led by Gazprom. That facil-  can be trucked to these consumers on a small   programme is
                         ity is due on stream in 2024-2025, relying on  scale, offers an alternative to costly pipeline con-  also aimed at
                         some 9.5 tcm of AB1+B2 reserves in Western  struction. Speaking at the government meeting
                         Siberia. The venture suffered a setback earlier  in which the programme was approved, Deputy   expanding the
                         this month when Gazprom cancelled an engi-  Prime Minister Alexander Novak said small-
                         neering, procurement and construction (EPC)  scale LNG supply could be used to gasify the   use of LNG for
                         contract for its gas processing facilities.  regions of Yakutia, Karelia, Amur, Murmansk,
                           The programme also mentions a 5.4mn tpy  Leningrad,  Pskov,  Tomsk, Kemerovo  and   gasification.
                         expansion project at Gazprom’s Sakhalin LNG,  Irkutsk.
                         even though this venture has made seemingly   Russia is about to embark on a RUB1.9 tril-
                         little progress in over a decade. The terminal will  lion ($25bn), 10-year gasification programme,
                         run on gas from the offshore South-Kirinskoye  aimed at expanding the share of the popula-
                         field, whose development has been on hold  tion with access to gas from the current 70%
                         since the US applied sanctions to the deposit  to 83%. Earlier this month, Russian Prime
                         in 2015. The government does not anticipate its  Minister Mikhail Mishustin said small-scale
                         launch before 2027.                  LNG supply was a favourable solution for gas-
                                                              ification in areas like the Far East. Only 18%
                         Longer term                          of consumers in the Far East have access to
                         Moving to the longer time frame, Gazprom  gas supply, which is three times less than the
                         wants to develop a 20mn tpy export facility on  national average, he said.™



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