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Grain LNG, situated on the Isle of Grain off Kent, 1.65mn boepd last year. But setbacks at Lancas-
is able to store and supply enough gas to meet at ter, the first fractured basement field to reach
least 25% of UK gas demand. QP is also a 67.5% production, have prompted the consultancy to
shareholder in another UK LNG terminal at rethink its assumptions.
South Hook. Hurricane slashed its estimate last month for
QP’s capacity reservation comes as it embarks how much oil could be recovered from Lancaster
on a major expansion project at the offshore to 16mn barrels, from 37.3mn barrels previously,
North Field, the source of the country’s LNG. after discovering that the field was more com-
The first phase, North Field East (NFE), will raise plex than earlier thought. Fractured basement
output from the current 77mn tpy to 110mn tpy resources were expected to account for almost
by 2025, while the second, North Field South one fifth of future national output, according to
(NFS), will expand it to 126mn tpy by the late Rystad.
2020s. Qatar, already the world’s biggest LNG The consultancy now predicts UK produc-
producer, has said it may pursue additional tion to max out at only 1.7mn boepd in 2035 and This year, France
expansion phases at a later stage. wind down to next to nothing by mid-century.
A record $65bn of final investment decisions There has been long-held scepticism in the stopped issuing
(FIDs) were taken on LNG export projects glob- industry about the ability of fractured reservoirs
ally last year, but the number still sits at zero for like those found at Lancaster to produce at a guarantees for
2020, as a result of market uncertainty. Qatar’s stable level, owing to their complex and unpre- projects that
expansion plans will weigh down on invest- dictable nature. They were largely ignored until
ment approvals on other liquefaction for years Hurricane came on the scene in 2004, with its using fracking or
to come. exploration work to date having yielded four
Meanwhile, a report by the Arab Petroleum fractured basement discoveries. gas flaring
Investment Corp. (APICORP) said that there Lancaster entered production last year but
were some $95bn petrochemicals projects has not lived up to expectations, meaning devel-
planned in the Middle East and North Africa in opments at other sites are likely to be rethought.
2020-2024, up $4bn from its last five-year out- In other news, France’s finance ministry is
look a year ago. Egypt, Iran and Saudi Arabia looking to rein in state export guarantees for
account for the bulk of these ventures. Devel- fossil fuel production projects, according to its
opers will have difficulty delivering on these proposal to Parliament last week.
investments, however, given weak market con- Guarantees, which reduce risks for French
ditions and a lack of established petrochemical companies and commercial banks in export
infrastructure in the region. transactions, will no longer be provided for the
dirtiest forms of oil, including heavy oil, shale oil
If you’d like to read more about the key events shaping and bitumen oil sands, starting next year. France
the downstream sector of Africa and the Middle East, stopped issuing guarantees for projects that use
then please click here for NewsBase’s DMEA Monitor. hydraulic fracturing or flaring this year, and ear-
lier called time on coal as well.
Europe: UK prospects grow bleaker Gas projects will be safe for now, with guar-
Hydrocarbon production on the UK Conti- antees continuing to be offered until 2035. The
nental Shelf (UKCS) is unlikely to exceed 2mn ministry justified this delay by saying the fuel
barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) again, would help coal-reliant economies scale down
Oslo-based Rystad Energy said in research pub- their emissions. But it said it might bring forward
lished on October 15, after lowering its forecasts the end-date in the future.
to factor in a downgrade at Hurricane Energy’s
Lancaster field. If you’d like to read more about the key events shaping
Rystad had expected national output to Europe’s oil and gas sector then please click here for
rebound to 2.1mn boepd by 2035, up from NewsBase’s EurOil Monitor.

P10 www. NEWSBASE .com Week 42 22•October•2020